Feb-10-21, by Rosendo Fraga
1.
The Judiciary conflict escalates as the central conflict in the
institutional field for theFernández-Fernández administration: Two rulings have
had a negative impact on the ruling party: the cassation court that passed the so-called
"macrist espionage" case from the Lomas de Zamora court on to the federal
justice of ComodoroPy, and the supreme court confirming one of MilagroSala's
convictions.This is perceived not only as negative but also as a threat by
Cristina Kirchner, who in the next few days is facing the so-called
"public works" case in the province of Santa Cruz. In this case,
President Alberto Fernández and her Justice Minister Marcela Losardo - highly
questioned by Kirchnerism - agreed with the Vice President, questioning the two
rulings. Kirchnerism once again insisted with its bills to control justice:
increased number of court members, creation of an intermediate court to review
the rulings of the highest court and take control of the Council of the
Magistracy. This last objective has already been achieved. In the next few
days, Diego Molea, close to LaCámpora, assumes the presidency of the council.
Justice is an area where the President and his team had sought a more moderate
image, now they seem to have fully assumed the thesis of the "Lawfare of
Kirchnerism" which holds that the corruption cases are an instrument of
political persecution. The reaction of the "ultra-Kirchnerist" sectors has been
clear: MilagroSala requested her pardon from the President, for herself and all
of her colleagues who were prosecuted and detained.
2.
Meanwhile, the Fernández-Fernández duo agree on unifying the
Justicialist party. On March 21, the new Peronist authorities are elected,
whose outgoing president is the former national congress man José Luis Gioja.
The President of the nation will be elected president of the party by virtue of
an agreement that includes the Vice President, the Speaker of the Lower House,
Sergio Massa, the president of the Lower House bloc, Máximo Kirchner and the
governor of the province of Buenos Aires, Axel Kicillof. Negotiations are being
held with the governors and the CGT so that they have satisfactory
representation in the new national council of the party. This week, efforts are
being made for an opposition slate led by the governor of San Luis, Alberto
Rodríguez Saá, to withdraw his bid. It is made up of, among others, MilagroSala
and the wife of former Planning Minister Julio de Vido. Thisslate that partly
represents the "ultra-Kirchnerism" has no chance of winning, not even
of having a minority representation. But the national ruling party seeks not to
present the idea of transforming the consensus of the new construction, in
unanimity. ButGreater Buenos Aires continues to politically challenge the national
government. In December, they announced that Máximo Kirchner would take over as
president of the Buenos Aires PJ in March, when Alberto Fernández assumed as
president of the national PJ. The term of the provincial authorities expires in
December. In order for Máximo to assume the presidency in March, the party must
be declared "headless", which implies the resignation of two thirds of the
party authorities and the PJ congress. The current party president in Buenos
Aires is Esteban Echeverría district Mayor Fernando Gray, who refuses to
resign. No councilor has resigned as required by Kirchnerism, it is the first
political brake faced by LaCámpora. The national ruling party tries not to
assume the political entity of the event.
3. The
executive has launched a price and salary agreement that is not easy to
finalize. The President began by stating that if it was not achieved, it would
be directly a price control. The union confederationswere called first: The
CGT, an expression that represents traditional union Peronism, the sector led
by Hugo Moyano and the militant unions of the CTA. They argued that the joint
associations should not have a ceiling, but they supported the government's
proposal for an agreement. Then it was the turn of the industrial business
community, who was skeptical and doubted that the premise that annual inflation
was only 29% could be maintained. The entities of the farming sector were
skeptical after their meeting, but optimistic that they were not threatened
with more withholdings. With these three interlocutors there was no agreement,
but no rejection. Meanwhile, 20,000 picketers in the city of Buenos Aires from
sectors allied to the ruling party (CCC, MovimientoEvita
and Barrios de pie) were deployed in
a thousand hypermarkets, checking whether the maximum prices that had
previously been agreed for basic food basket were being met or not. Their
complaints will be submitted to the secretariat of commerce, and AFIP
inspectors joined the inspections. The social economic council that the
government will create in the next few days, chaired by Gustavo Béliz, is not
linked to these negotiations, but will have a long-term objective.
4. In
Argentina, deaths and infections due to the pandemic decrease while vaccination
is delayed, and in foreign policy the Falklands and the South Atlantic are once
again a subject of tension. Argentina is in the thirteenth place of countries
with the highest number of deaths from coronavirus, it is 12thin
terms of most cases of infected and is in the 16thplace of countries
with the highest percentage of vaccinated per number of inhabitants with 0.82%.
For this last figure, a potential second dose requiredis not taken into account.
The reduction of Covid 19 is a global phenomenon. The WHO has reported that
throughout January it has been reduced by half, but the delay in vaccination is
a local phenomenon compared to other countries in the region such as Chile. The
government is aware that this delay can have negative consequences in the
election year; it tries to acquire vaccines from anywhere. In foreign policy,
the presence of a US nuclear submarine in the South Atlantic and its exercises
with a British plane from the Falkland Islands garrison generated a strong
rejection in the Argentine Foreign Ministry, which under Foreign Minister
Felipe Solá denounced it for violating UN agreements. The governor of Tierra
del Fuego, Gustavo Melella, went further by saying that if the submarine
entered Argentine waters it would constitute a really serious crisis. Only Defense
Minister Agustín Rossi toned down the tension by stating that the submarine had
not sailed in Argentine waters and that although it is nuclear powered, it did
not imply that it would carry nuclear cargo. British private media argue that
Argentina is agitating the conflict in the South Atlantic for electoral
convenience. But the central point of Argentina's foreign policy is that on
March 5 the President will visit China. April would be the key moment in
negotiations with the international monetary fund, in which the US vote is
decisive.
5. To conclude:
a.
Kirchnerismis exacerbated by adverse judicial rulings and seeks to accelerate
actions to control justice.
b. The
national ruling party is managing to align almost all of Peronism so that
Alberto Fernández is elected the new party president, but in Greater Buenos
Aires the mayors resist.
c. The Executive's
talks with unions, industrialists and the farming sector for the price and wage
agreement have begun, but its realization does not seem easy.
d. The
delay in vaccination is a central problem to be solved for the government and
the tension in the South Atlantic is a relevant problem in foreign policy that
is related to the US-China struggle in the region.
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