Militar de
del Sur 2017



Investigaciones sobre Defensa


Los 70: la década que siempre vuelve

La distancia temporal que puede marcar la diferencia entre historia y periodismo de investigación no es objetiva. En este libro el autor ha sabido  combinar ambas capacidades.



Reseñas anteriores:

Parar la pelota. 

Perón íntimo

Julio Argentino Roca. Un lugar incómodo en el pensamiento nacional 


Suscripción a newsletter

Si desea recibir nuestro newsletter, por favor ingrese sus datos.

Argentine Political Outlook (Nov-13-20) PDF Imprimir E-Mail
Nov-13-20, by Rosendo Fraga

1. The US election allows the Argentine government to encourage some improvement in the bilateral relationship, but with limitations. Biden was Obama's vice president between 2008 and 2016. The relationship with Argentina in this period was not good. Cristina's second term coincided with Obama's second and the relationship was very conflictive, reaching the highest tension when a US military plane that was coming with equipment to give a training course to the Federal Police, was stopped in Buenos Aires. Obama received the arrival of Macri to power as a positive event and made it clear when he visited him in March 2016. This means that the bilateral relationship is not going to be easy, although change is always an opportunity  In addition, a key conversation was held on the morning of Thursday, November 5, between Alberto Fernández and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin. Although the reason was the agreement for Argentina to buy millions of doses of the vaccine against the coronavirus (Sputnik V), they talked about the bilateral relationship and investment opportunities. The new ambassador in Moscow is the one who was Cristina's last deputy foreign affairs minister, who thus has a direct influence on this bilateral relationship. In the region, Biden has called the Maduro regime a dictatorship, but Argentine diplomacy hopes to play a role in mediating the conflict. 

2. Regarding national politics, there is an open conflict between the President and the Vice President over the appointment of the new Attorney General of the Nation. Today the law at establishes the need for two-thirds of the senators present to appoint this official, but the Kirchners' project, which already has a favorable commission approval, lowers this requirement to a simple majority. In the first case, the ruling party cannot make the appointments without the concurrence of a sector of the opposition; in the second (simple majority, it is not necessary. The candidate of the Administration, Judge Daniel Rafecas, already said months ago that he would only accept his candidacy if the rule that establishes two-thirds for his election was not modified. The Minister of Justice (Marcela Losardo) publicly confirmed that Alberto Fernández's candidate is Rafecas, while Kirchnerism maintains that by modifying the law, the ruling party has freedom of action to choose the candidate they want. Carrió's proposal urging the opposition to vote for Rafecas to strengthen the President against the Vice President, did not achieve support in Juntos por el Cambio. The advisory commission to propose changes to the functioning of the Court, which is made up of jurists with a majority of pro-Kirchner orientation, would favor of modifying the majority in force for the appointment of the Attorney. Meanwhile, Eduardo Casal, a career civil servant appointed during the Macri government, continues in office. The President has said that his priority is the approval of the judicial reform in the Lower House, something that does not seem easy given that it is necessary to negotiate to reach a majority in this House. The speaker, Sergio Massa, will give priority to the bills driven by Minister Guzmán. 

3. Within the so-called "albertism", there are differences regarding when to make changes in the Cabinet, which they recognize as necessary. The prevailing idea is that it is better to wait and take a certain temporary distance from Cristina Kirchner's letter in which she stated that "there are officials who do not work," so as not to show their direct influence on the power and weakness of the President. In addition, the Administration fears that implementing changes now may imply opening disputes for spaces of power that demonstrate the real influence of Kirchnerism. But there have also arisen differences within "albertism" itself regarding the incorporation into the Cabinet of Aníbal Fernández, a questioned pro-Kirchner official who as a candidate for governor of Buenos Aires in 2015 was defeated by María Eugenia Vidal. Aníbal Fernández was more than once in the Government House in recent weeks, and in the last one he shared a long lunch with Sergio Massa, speaker of the Lower House. Advisers to the President fear that the incorporation of Fernández, even though it may emerge from the Presidency and the House, will be interpreted as an advance of Kirchnerism, in addition to the negative political effect of the return of a questioned figure in public opinion. Almost two weeks after Cristina Kirchner's letter, it seems clear that it was a demonstration of her power, but the President is trying to neutralize its political effects. The President decided on a new easing of controls due to the pandemic. The reduction of infections and expectation of the vaccine are presented as the arguments to do so, but the political cost in its image plays an important role in the decision. 

4. There are growing divergences in the opposition, while the Mapuche conflict in the south of the country is a source of permanent tension. As mentioned, Elisa Carrió's project for Juntos por el Cambio to vote for the appointment of Rafecas did not have consensus in the opposition, despite the fact that it was shown with a photo of Larreta, Vidal and the leader of Coalición Cívica in an estate in Greater Buenos Aires. The Buenos Aires Mayor sent signals of presidential support in adapting a rally in commemoration of the pro-Development movement organized by Rogelio Frigerio with speakers such as Ricardo López Murphy, Facundo Manes and Margarita Stolbizer, as a kind of political adhesion which was not indeed. Criticisms of Macri continue, but they have not managed to remove him from the political scene. Economic necessity has led the governors of Juntos por el Cambio vote on the budget. The flag-waving protest that took place on November 8 showed once again that the opposition militancy has a harsher attitude than its leadership, of whom only Mario Negri and Patricia Bullrich appeared. The official-opposition dialogue exists, but it raises another divergence between the President and the Vice President. As for the social conflict that develops in the south of the country around the illegal settlements of Mapuche origin, it continues. A church in the town of El Bolsón in Río Negro was seized this ethnic group and its priest was robbed. In turn, the national government, reluctant to deploy federal forces in this type of conflict, now did so preemptively in the illegal settlement of the Mascardi Lake area.


5. To conclude: 

a.  Biden's victory is deemed by the government as a chance to play a mediation role in regional conflicts, but the precedent during the Obama administration will not make it easy. 

b.  The divergence between the Administration and Kircherism has become apparent with the appointment of the Attorney General and finds both in opposite roads. 

c.  Alberto Fernandez wants to postpone the change of officials so that it does not appear as a consequence of Cristina's letter but the name of Anibal Fernandez creates controversy within his own team. 

d. The opposition faces unity problems in its leadership as shown by the latest divergences, and in it militancy, as evidenced in the new flag-waving protest.

Documentos del CENM

Una visión de largo plazo:
Análisis del documento “Tendencias globales 2035” del Consejo de Inteligencia de los EEUU


      ELECCIONES 2019



     WEB SITIO "ROCA HOY"      












Opinion Publica Indicadores de opinion publica de Argentina Indicadores de opinion publica de Argentina Indicadores de opinion publica de America Latina

Archivo historico banner_cp.jpg