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Política económica para decidir en tiempos difíciles  

Este nuevo libro de Juan Carlos De Pablo, está referido a las decisiones en el ámbito económico en tiempos difíciles, como dice su título. De ser por la historia argentina, se trata de una situación casi sistémica y los ejemplos que da el autor sobre nuestro país, pienso que lo confirman. 




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Argentine Political Outlook (Feb-09-19) PDF Imprimir E-Mail
Feb-09-19, by Rosendo Fraga

1. Macri scored a major political achievement by succeeding in that Buenos Aires Governor Vidal drops her plan to advance the provincial election that separated it from the national poll. In January, he has had two important achievements in the goal of aligning his electoral coalition: the agreement with Carrio to have an active role in the campaign and the imposition on Vidal for electoral unification. She had concrete electoral arguments to justify her strategy, but the President felt that if she did it, the political world would see it as a sign of lack of confidence in his re-election. The mayor of Buenos Aires city (Larreta) had already unified the election date through a law from the legislature months ago. Now Macri will continue with his goal of aligning the electoral coalition: he will put some pressure on the governors of Mendoza (Cornejo) and Jujuy (Morales) -the two are radicals and stated they will advance the election- so that they also unify the provincial elections with the presidential one; he will seek to prevent primaries in Cordoba, Santa Fe, Mendoza, Entre Rios and other provinces, either between sectors of the UCR or between them and the PRO, imposing agreements with the Administration; in the case of La Pampa, where the primary has not been stopped, he will look for a PRO triumph. Finally, he will try to prevent the dissident sector of the UCR from running against Macri with an opposition candidate (Lousteau) in the Cambiemos open primaries. The President will try to resolve all these matters in February, so as to focus on the campaign from March onwards. 

2. For her part, Cristina focuses on her strategy to lower her level of rejection and to promote the unity of Peronism in the provinces that move elections forward. She knows she would lose the second round with Macri today, due to the high level of rejection she maintains. The "silence" is used as the most effective strategy to achieve it. With the initiative of advancing the provincial election in Buenos Aires discarded, she promotes an agreement. Her intention to put Kicillof as a candidate for Governor and Maximo as head of the national slate for congress members, continues to be resisted by the mayors who press for the candidate to be among them. (Magario for the pro-K and Insaurralde for the anti-K). The mayors would accept the electoral role of the former President's son, but not that of her former Minister of Economy. Although Massa denies it, the possibility of his candidacy to Governor of Buenos Aires, for the unified Buenos Aires Peronism, is not closed. There is no runoff election in the province, and the governorship is won by one vote. Cambiemos was imposed in 2015 and in 2017 because Peronism ran divided at provincial level. If it were united now, Vidal's reelection would be in danger. In Tucumán, Kirchnerism questioned former governor Alperovich, for refusing an agreement with Governor Manzur, to compete in the open primaries. The former governor will go with his own front dividing the Peronist vote. In all the districts that have an advanced election, Cristina is currently promoting unity agreements. 

3. Anti-K peronism formalizes its launching on February 4 in Mar del Plata, in an event attended by 1,500 leaders from across the country. "Alternativa Argentina" introduces itself with its four founders: Massa, Schiaretti, Urtubey and Pichetto. After this launching, each will focus on their respective electoral campaigns. Schiaretti is going for his re-election on May 12 and has no open primaries; Massa will continue campaigning for President, but looking attentively at the province of Buenos Aires; the Governor of Salta - he has no re-election chances in his province - will continue his campaign for the Presidency and Pichetto, seems to go after the candidacy for vice president with Lavagna, who has decided not to participate in the meeting, maintaining his strategy of reaching the presidential candidacy of the "third space", by consensus and not by primary elections. The governors who will attend are those of Entre Ríos (Bordet), Misiones (Pasalaqua), Santiago (Zamora), Casas (La Rioja) and Chubut (Arcioni). As for the campaign, Alternativa Argentina agrees with Cambiemos in the "hard" discourse on security and greater control on migrations, but it does with Kirchnerism in questioning the emergency decrees related to asset recovery and privatization of ARSAT frequencies. 

4. But February brings more political, governmental and institutional activities. The Supreme Court will meet on Tuesday 5, to define the case management schedule. It will decide when it will resolve the questioning of the popular consultation of La Rioja and the controversy over the Farmacity case, which affects the former Deputy Chief of Cabinet (Quintana). The Executive will resolve the agenda that will be sent to the extraordinary sessions of the Congress that take place in February. It intends to transform the decree on asset recovery -challenged as unconstitutional- into a bill. The anticipated bid for the Lower House Presidency now discharged by a member of Cambiemos with Peronist origin (Monzó) is slated to advance. Candidates for succession are the Minister of Security of the Province of Buenos Aires (Ritondo), who will head the slate of candidates for national congress members in this district and the Deputy Mayor of Buenos Aires (Santilli) who will do the same in his district. Social tension will increase and demonstrations against the "hike in bills" will escalate. On Thursday, February 7, there will be a "march of torches" against the increase in bills and the next day, the "noise-making protest" will be launched in the metropolitan region for the same reason. The end of the judicial recess will resume the resolution of cases with political impact: the prosecution of the President's cousin (Calcaterra) will be defined in the Odebrecht case; the procedural situation of Rocca in the notebooks case, at the end of February, the procedural situation of the Minister of Defense (Aguad) in the Post Office case and the first public and oral hearing will be opened against Cristina in a corruption case, whose sentence will be passed by late this year, after the election. 

5. To conclude: 

a)  Macri has taken a major step in his goal of putting the ruling coalition in order, imposing on Vidal the decision to unify elections. 

b)  Cristina continues with her "silence-based strategy" to lower her rejection, while promoting unity agreements with the provinces. 

c)  The anti-K peronism (Alternativa Argentina) is formally launched in Mar del Plata early this week, while Lavagna tries to find consensus to avoid competing in the primaries. 

d)  In February, the Court will define its sentence schedule; some definitions are expected in the cases that have a political impact, the order of business for the extraordinary sessions of Congress will be defined, and the social protest against the hike in bills is slated to escalate. 

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