Militar de
del Sur 2017



Investigaciones sobre Defensa



Política económica para decidir en tiempos difíciles  

Este nuevo libro de Juan Carlos De Pablo, está referido a las decisiones en el ámbito económico en tiempos difíciles, como dice su título. De ser por la historia argentina, se trata de una situación casi sistémica y los ejemplos que da el autor sobre nuestro país, pienso que lo confirman. 




Suscripción a newsletter

Si desea recibir nuestro newsletter, por favor ingrese sus datos.

Argentine Political Outlook (Dic-03-18) PDF Imprimir E-Mail
Dic-03-18, by Rosendo Fraga

1. The ruling party believes that the success achieved at the G20 summit could be a turning point in its favor, as the commemoration of the Bicentennial in 2010 was for Cristina. Back then, Kirchnerism began a recovery that allowed it to win in the first round with 54 % of the votes by the end of 2011. But the point is whether the economic recovery that could take place in the coming months may be similar to the one back then, which allowed a growth rate close to 10% in the election year. The social media of Cambiemos has already begun a massive posting of Macri crying in the Colón Opera House, meeting with the main leaders of the world and their praise to the Argentine President. Although the final statement avoided definitions, it served to prevent a rupture; the truce agreed between Trump and Xi does not resolve the trade dispute, but prevents it from escalating. Macri's 17 bilateral meetings with heads of government have made progress on specific issues such as the expansion of the Chinese Swap. But just as Wall Street securities this week will show how much the global economic uncertainty has reduced the truce to trade conflict, Argentina's country risk will allow it to verify how much the Summit has served to rebuild its economic credibility. The fact that the invitation for Argentina to start the OECD accession process has been postponed again is perhaps the greatest disappointment of the Summit for the Argentine government. Meanwhile, the Boca-River match to be played in Madrid will show how the public opinion has an ephemeral record of events such as the G20 Summit. 

2. The electoral campaign of the ruling party, revitalized by the success of the G20 and concentrated on digital instruments, will continue to have the Macri-Cristina polarization as the pillar. The ruling coalition itself recognizes that if the election was today, the former president could win by a narrow margin in the second round. In addition to being a real possibility, it aims to reinforce polarization with the "fear" of a return of Kirchnerism and at the same time avoid the emergence of the anti-K PJ as a national alternative, preventing voters from being split into three. The central argument of the ruling party is that this slight advantage of Cristina is in the worst quarter of economic activity of the 12 of the tenure, which is the last quarter of 2018. Now this consideration shows this is not only the worst quarter since the last quarter of 2015, but also the worst in what remains until the end of next year, when the presidential election will be held. But the internal situation within Cambiemos is not easy. The intention of the governor of Buenos Aires (Vidal) to say within three months whether or not to anticipate the provincial election generates criticism, despite she said that she will decide it in agreement with the President. But her decision to grant a 7,000-peso bonus to provincial state workers- when the government paid 5,000 pesos at the national level - as well as granting an additional 3,500 to provincial pensioners, when Macri does not take the same measure, reinforce criticism. Outside the PRO, the claims of the UCR and Carrio do not cease, although without reaching a crisis. 

3. In the broad spectrum of Peronism, the division between Kirchnerism and anti-Kirchnerism deepens, as well as the development of two different electoral strategies. Cristina has the second bloc in the Lower House and the third in the Senate. It has only two of the seventeen governors of Peronism, but has the support of an important part of the BA province PJ mayors. She is determined to be a candidate and has started a strategy of "seduction" that seeks to lower her level of rejection among the public opinion, as well as the power factors and pressure groups. She sends compromising signals and on the occasion of the G20 Summit she avoided the radicalized attitudes. For its part, the anti-K PJ rules out an alliance with Cristina and seeks to organize itself. Part of this space are those who think should be a third real alternative, with capacity to capture both Justicialists and disappointed voters of Cambiemos. Roberto Lavagna's candidacy seems to be promoted both the CGT and the President of the Senate bloc of the Federal PJ (Pichetto). Several of the PJ governors are assuming this position, but others do not refuse to seek a broader unity that incorporates sectors of Kirchnerism. All these alternatives should be defined in May, since June 22 is the deadline to formalize the candidacies. 

4. An important success story of the G20 Summit is that no violent incidents were recorded. The government now expects the same thing to happen at the holiday season, but the protest is settling in again. The march against the G20 that took place on November 30 was multitudinous, but without violence and less presence of foreign activists than expected. With this precedent, the government is more optimistic to prevent looting on the occasion of the holidays, as has happened several times in the last two decades. But the social protest is resumed in the streets since this Monday, December 3. This day marks a new teacher strike in Buenos Aires and the judicial union decides whether to carry out a 60-hour strike, when the Executive branch rejects the Court's request for additional funds to increase judicial salaries; on Thursday, December 6, the metallurgical guild launches a strike in support of their wage claim; a day earlier, social movements will again mobilize claiming food emergency, requesting food in different supermarkets. But violence in football has become a priority because of its high political cost. To respond to it, the President decided that his bill to tighten the penalties against the hooligans be included in the agenda for the extraordinary sessions that have been convened from this week until December 21. 

5. To conclude: 

a) The G20 Summit failed to make global progress but did not cause any ruptures and allowed the Argentine government to show good organizational skills and a direct dialogue with the most important world leaders. 

b) Its images become the beginning of Cambiemos' mass digital electoral strategy, which emphasizes polarization with Cristina once again and economic recovery in the last months of 2019. 

c) Within Peronism, two different electoral coalitions emerge; one aligned behind Cristina's candidacy, and another based on the governors who are not willing to follow her. 

d) During the Summit, no violent expressions were seen, encouraging government to avoid them in yearend, though protests resume on the streets with strikes, blockades, and demonstrations.

Documentos del CENM

Una visión de largo plazo:
Análisis del documento “Tendencias globales 2035” del Consejo de Inteligencia de los EEUU


      ELECCIONES 2019













Opinion Publica Indicadores de opinion publica de Argentina Indicadores de opinion publica de Argentina Indicadores de opinion publica de America Latina

Archivo historico banner_cp.jpg