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Política económica para decidir en tiempos difíciles  

Este nuevo libro de Juan Carlos De Pablo, está referido a las decisiones en el ámbito económico en tiempos difíciles, como dice su título. De ser por la historia argentina, se trata de una situación casi sistémica y los ejemplos que da el autor sobre nuestro país, pienso que lo confirman. 




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Argentine Political Outlook (Nov-30-18) PDF Imprimir E-Mail
Nov-30-18, by Rosendo Fraga

1. The polls showing parity between Cristina and Macri began to give a slight advantage for the former in the last two weeks. Although one year before the second round that will take place on November 24, 2019 is a very long time today in political-electoral terms worldwide, today's picture generates political effects, even though it may have nothing to do with future events. The strategy of Kirchenerism is that its last Minister of Economy (Kicillof) is the candidate for governor in the Buenos Aires province, running with Cristina as presidential candidate. In some surveys, he is the best positioned after the governor (Vidal). But this generates resistance among the mayors of suburban districts, as those of La Matanza (Magario) and Lomas de Zamora (Insaurralde), who aspire to run for that position. This is a scenario that Macri has sought, so that once again the polarization against the former President allows his victory as happened in 2015 in the presidential election and in 2017 in the mid-term poll. In the "Critical Thinking" anti-Summit, Cristina along with Latin American left-wing leaders confirmed her populist ideological approach to the left. But the "possibility" that she wins begins to generate economic concerns and uncertainty, which may complicate the government's strategy of reaching August 2019 -when the open primaries are held as a "pre-election" step- with a starting economic recovery. At the judicial level, we also observe attitudes of taking distance from the government. This occurs both in the first and second instance, but also in the Supreme Court, which this week would rule in favor of judges not paying income tax, though with some limits to it. 

2. This situation has hastened the anti-K Peronism to accelerate its political organization to avoid an exodus towards Kirchnerism, and the actions have been mainly two. One, the meeting between the former Economy Minister Roberto Lavagna and the leaders of the CGT who have a "pro-dialogue" attitude with the government (Barrionuevo, Lingieri, Martínez, Rodríguez, Cavalieri, etc.). After the meeting, unionists announced that their interlocutor was the best candidate for the anti-K PJ. The polls that have measured Lavagna have shown he is the best positioned candidate in this political space. The other was the broadening of "Alternativa Argentina", launched by the governors of Córdoba and Salta (Schiaretti and Urtubey), Massa and Pichetto last month, to include a group of PJ governors: those of Tucumán, Chaco, La Rioja, Entre Ríos, Tierra del Fuego, Chubut and Misiones, bringing together 9 provincial leaders. They will seek to add governors who are not of Peronist roots (Santiago, Neuquén and Santa Fe). If this coalition manages to get organized, the Macri-Cristina polarization could weaken and other electoral scenarios emerge for the presidential election. 

3. Meanwhile, Cambiemos is determined to bet on polarization, considering Cristina is the candidate for Macri to best compete against in a runoff election. But three problems arise: the relationship with the UCR, the electoral strategy in the province of Buenos Aires and the distancing of the PRO's "political wing". As the situation becomes more complicated for the ruling party, the UCR criticizes the national government harder and demands more space in the slates of Cambiemos and that competitive primaries be held. In the case of the province of Buenos Aires, Maria Eugenia Vidal does not rule out anticipating the local election, as the mayors of Cambiemos claim. The image of the Governor exceeds Macri's by several points, although she has also deteriorated like all of the ruling coalition's members. The definition will only be adopted in March. But this alternative will be deemed as Vidal not running for election on the same day as Macri to avoid a negative effect. The leaders representing the "political wing" of the government (Frigerio, Monzó, and Massot) are amid distancing, influencing less on the government and on the electoral strategy led by Peña and Durán Barba, who manage the government's digital strategy.   

4. The G20 Summit will be a scenario for Macri to appear together with the world's top leaders, while growing concerns exist about security risks. The meetings with Trump, Xi, Putin, Abe, Merkel, May and Macron will be the priority for the Argentine President. But as November 30 and Dec. 1 approach - days of the Summit - the signs of violent protests begin to appear. On the 26th there is a national strike of the Aerolineas Argentinas pilots that can be extended in the following days -caused by the government suspensions- and a national protest of all the transport guilds is scheduled for 3 hours. That same day a new protest of the Social Movements will take place claiming for food in supermarkets, and will be repeated on the first day of the Summit. Two activists of the CTEP Movement were killed in recent days as the police has been accused of this crime. A year after the death of a young Mapuche in Mascardi (Nahuel), the radicalized organizations of this ethnic group have carried out protests and roadblockades in several places in the south of the country. Last week's violent events with All Boys soccer fans and the city police and the incidents between the same police and Coast Guard officers against the River Plate violent fans, that forced the shameful suspension of the Boca-River final match, raised doubts about the ability to control the security of the Summit and have caused significant damage to the image of Argentina and its government in the world, 4 days before the arrival of the foreign presidents. On Nov 28th, the 22 foreign organizations - including Black Bloc and Anarchism - and the 60 local ones, which will take part in the protests, will hold a meeting. 

5. To conclude: 

a)  The latest polls confirm polarization between Macri and Cristina with a slight advantage for her, raising economic uncertainties and causing an impact on the Judiciary's performance. 

b)  This situation has also promoted the anti-K PJ to get organized, as the CGT launches Lavagna's candidacy, and "Alternativa Argentina" joins in 7 governors. 

c) Cambiemos' electoral strategy is based on polarization, betting on next year's economic recovery and on the heavy use of digital media. 

d) The G20 Summit will allow Macri to meet with the world's top leaders as concerns have emerged over the security at the event.

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