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Inicio arrow Análisis arrow Argentine Political Outlook (May-23-17)

Argentine Political Outlook (May-23-17) PDF Imprimir E-Mail
May-23-17 - by Rosendo Fraga

1. Five months after the elections, the ruling party is advancing in its electoral campaign with epicenter in the province of Buenos Aires, where the effect of the national result will be defined. At national level, Macri seems to have imposed his decision that in no district, within Cambiemos, will there be open primaries although there are resistances and conflicts in several districts, beginning with the City of Buenos Aires, where Lousteau has started his election campaign, criticizing Larreta but not Macri. Vidal, has raised as a central idea that "there is no one in the PJ who represents a repudiated past " and "there are no differences between Cristina and Randazzo." On the one hand, she aims to polarize, but also to prevent the former Minister of Interior and Transport from avoiding it, representing an anti-Kirchnerist Peronism. At the same time, there is insistence on the “bell-ringing” campaign in the suburban area and a strong youth presence is organized in the campaign, with the so-called "sub-forty" age group. The triumph of Baradel in the elections of the main teachers' union of Buenos Aires (Suteba) with a record voting turnout and with 72% - the Trotskyist opposition obtained 25% - indicates that the teaching conflict will not be easy to solve in the province. 

2. Less than a month is still to go before closing alliances and the Buenos Aires Peronism moves towards unity as Cristina has an increasing role. At the national level, eight Peronist governors (Córdoba, Entre Ríos, Catamarca, La Rioja, Misiones, Chaco, Tucumán and Tierra del Fuego) met with a double objective: to encourage the renewal process in the PJ, to moderate provincial spending in the election year and to claim for having been excluded in managing housing funds. But it is in the province of Buenos Aires where the former President assumes an active role, without ruling out the possibility of running for election. On Tuesday, May 23, she meets with the mayors of the "Patria Group" - her most outstanding referents in the suburbs are those of Avellaneda (Ferraresi) and Ensenada (Secco) - who are pro-K. The "Fénix Group", whose most important figure is that of La Matanza (Magario) resists the leadership of the most resisted figures of Kirchnerism as Boudou and D'Elia. Those of the group "Esmeralda" – whose most important official is the mayor of Lomas de Zamora (Insaurralde) - question Kirchnerism and forge ties with Randazzo, who has decided to run for election and compete in the open primaries with the candidate of the Kirchnerism, whether Cristina or Scioli- who has starting to "walk" the suburban areas. The slogan of the former Minister of Interior and Transport is "Against Macri", seeking to elude Vidal's popularity and opting to polarize against the national government. While Massa suffers an exodus to Randazzo’s circle and rejects any deal with him, on May 25 he will launch his alliance with Stolbizer, although without defining yet whether he will be a candidate, for which he has time until June 24. 

3. Conflicts around justice and corruption are at the heart of politics. After the "two-for-one storm", the bloc of Peronist senators propose to increase the number of members of the Supreme Court by two, while Kirchnerism insists on asking for the impeachment of the three members of the highest court who voted in favor of extending the benefit to the accused of human rights abuses. The ruling party is working to remove a member of the chamber (Freiler) accused of illicit enrichment and aligned with Kirchnerism. The prosecution of Bonafini and Schocklender for defrauding the funds of the Mothers of Plaza de Mayo (“Sueños Compartidos”) Foundation is a blow to Kirchnerism, which has taken distance from it. But the acquittal in this case of Julio De Vido, has triggered new allegations from Carrió, who accused the ruling party, political and business leadership and justice, of protecting the former Minister of Planning and Infrastructure of Cristina. But it is the Argentine investigation of the Odebrecht case - on June 1, the Brazilian court provides evidence and testimony about the country - the case that may have more political effects. The President has said that there is no evidence that involves the chief of the intelligence service (Arribas) with this case, but his refusal to appear before the bicameral commission of the Congress on the Monitoring of the intelligence services weakens him, while officials are asking to remove him from the position until the situation gets clarified. The protests in the streets have resumed and on Tuesday 16, university teachers, students and scientists, marched to the Ministry of Education and the Plaza de Mayo; On the following day, pickets organized community kitchens in diverse places of the metropolitan region and the accesses to the City of Buenos Aires and this week, the metallurgical guild will claim in the city downtown for its collective bargaining agreement, the Milagros Sala supporters will protest at the meeting of the IACHR and the "hard" pickets announce new road blockades if they are not awarded 25,000 more plans. 

4. Macri made this week the Asian phase of his visits abroad, assuming that the crisis in Brazil may complicate Argentina. The trip to China to participate in the "Silk Road" forum -China's major transportation infrastructure project from the Far East to Europe- along with 27 other heads of state or government, has allowed to delineate a horizon in the bilateral relation, ratifying projects signed under Kirchnerism and adding others, although some like the hydroelectric dams of Santa Cruz area still lacking a definite solution. In Japan, Macri successfully advanced the call for investments to Argentina, but as the Japanese Ambassador in Buenos Aires said, the outcome of the October election will be crucial for decisions to be made. In a year and a half of government - on June 6 - investments have delayed more than expected, growth has been postponed more than announced and the decline in inflation continues to protract. For the Argentine government, the political crisis in Brazil is negative for the economy, both at commercial and financial levels. Pakistan has obtained the emerging market grade in May and Argentina expected to get it in June, something that may not occur now. 

5. To conclude: 

a) Five months to go before the elections, Cambiemos defines its electoral strategy, avoiding the open primaries in all districts and discrediting peronism in all its versions in the province of Buenos Aires. 

b) The PJ governors seek a renewal that neutralizes Cristina but she plays a growing role in the BA province, where Randazzo will compete in the primaries against the K. 

c) Justice is an area where the ruling coalition faces advances and setbacks, and where the decisions on corruption cases may have growing political consequences, especially for Odebrecht. 

d) Macri successfully completes his trips abroad in China and Japan, when the delays in his economic policy may worsen due to the effects of the political crisis in Brazil.

 
BALANCES Y PERSPECTIVAS ¡nuevo!

ARGENTINA:
Balance 2016 | Perspectivas 2017
LATINOAMÉRICA:
Balance 2016 | Perspectivas 2017
MUNDO:
Balance 2016 | Perspectivas 2017

ACTUALIDAD

ARGENTINA
La particular elección porteña

LATINOAMÉRICA
El TLC entre China y el MERCOSUR

INTERNACIONAL
El surgimiento de una nueva era

EVOLUCIÓN SOCIOPOLÍTICA
Balance de la conflictividad social argentina durante abril

DEFENSA
¿Ante una crisis por error de cálculo?

OPINIÓN PÚBLICA
Seguimiento de intención de voto a presidente (Dic 2013 - Nov 2015)

OPINIÓN
Proyección del bicentenario de Chacabuco

SECCIONES

ARGENTINA

BOLIVIA
BRASIL

CHILE

COLOMBIA
COYUNTURA
CUBA
DEFENSA
EL SALVADOR
EVOLUCION SOCIOPOLITICA
HONDURAS
IBEROAMERICA
INTERNACIONAL
LAS AMERICAS
LATINOAMERICA

MEXICO

MUNDO
NICARAGUA
OPINION PUBLICA
PARAGUAY

PERU

URUGUAY

VENEZUELA

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