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Inicio arrow Análisis arrow Argentina arrow Argentine Political Outlook (Jan-16-17)

Argentine Political Outlook (Jan-16-17) PDF Imprimir E-Mail
Jan-16-17 - by Rosendo Fraga

1. Macri begins the second half of January seeking to resume the political initiative lost in December. He has reorganized the government team, reinforcing the role of the Cabinet Chief and displacing the former Minister of Finance (Prat Gay); he signed the productivity agreement to boost investments in the Vaca Muerta field, not yet ratified by trade unions; he seeks to provide answers in matters of public security, with the debate on the criminal responsibility of minors and assumes a tougher attitude towards pickets in the Capital; he moves on in the election campaign, enhancing the figure of Vidal - the poll released by Mangment & Fit gives her almost 20 points more of approval than the President in the Buenos Aires area - with whom Macri has publicly appeared three times in a week and has included in his trip to Spain that takes place on February 22; public works have been initiated with the presence of the president in the City of Buenos Aires, the province of Buenos Aires and the interior the country (Córdoba); in foreign policy, the government sends four ministers to the Davos Forum this week, where talks with the IMF are expected as well as with China to solve bilateral problems that have emerged in recent weeks and announces that the President will visit Brazil on February 7; it moves ahead with borrowing before Trump takes office next Friday, January 20, predicting that conditions will become more difficult after that date.

2. In the domestic policy, this week marks the second anniversary of Nisman's death, at a time when the various lawsuits around him are resumed. The allegations about his death are now led by Judge Ercolini and based on the investigations of Prosecutor Taiano, homicide has been concluded; Nisman's allegations against Cristina Kirchner and other officials in relation to the cover-up through the agreement with Iran are being investigated by Judge Lijo who may decide on the investigation on the basis of new evidence; the investigation of the AMIA attack that took place 22 years ago now has new perspectives, putting the focus on the scientific and technological aspects and not on the intelligence services where it had been until now. Possibly, this is the most complicated legal issue for former President Cristina Kirchner. This happens when the corruption scandals that affect her gain further momentum, as money transfers have been verified between Cristóbal López -the main game entrepreneur linked to the Kirchners- and Lázaro Báez -the most important and closest to them in public works. Kirchner denies the facts and attempts a political counter-offensive, denouncing persecution, in which Cristina's Twitter is reinforced by the statements of Estela Carlotto who said "The Kirchners are not dishonest, they have money, but that's not stealing ".

3. In this context, the accusation against the head of the intelligence service (Arribas) of having received funds from company Odebrecht, is a political problem for the government. The allegations -so far only investigated at the Financial Investigation Unit (FIU) - are to have received USD 600,000 from a lobbyist of that company, before being the head of the Federal Investigation Agency. Arribas denies the accusation, the President has decided to close ranks behind him, the Minister of Justice (Garavano) and the Buenos Aires Mayor (Larreta) advocated him with different arguments and the PRO congress bloc rejects that the defendant gives explanations in Congress as claimed by opposition and official legislators. As expected, the FPV congress bloc has filed a complaint in court against the official for this matter. But a respected figure of the opposition (Stolbizer) has asked that he be removed from office until his situation is clarified, as was done with the Head of Customs (Gómez Centurión). Allies of government (Ocaña) and relevant members of Cambiemos (Carrio and Cobos) have followed suit. A radical legislator of the intelligence bicameral (Gutiérrez) has requested the summon of Arribas before her. All this happens in an area such as the intelligence services of Argentina, where internal struggles and intrigues have been at the center in recent years.

4. Gaining the control of the streets again is a government goal in 2017, but is not easy to achieve. The street vendors conflict in the neighborhood of Once is the first test of the new Metropolitan Police in this field, where the government has shown the ability to divide, at the expense of money payments - in this case "training subsidies" - but has not yet shown the ability to restore order effectively. In the provinces, the repression of the Mapuche resistance in Chubut - which, like their Chilean counterparts is leading to violent actions - has again shown that neither the national nor the provincial government wants to pay the political cost of these actions. This fact has allowed allied human rights organizations of Kirchnerism to report that the imprisonment of Milagro Sala as the repression of the Mapuches are expressions of a persecution policy against "native peoples" by the Macri government. The migratory conflict that dominates the West has also emerged in Argentina in the past four months, and the government prepares measures for greater control of the migratory flow, to prevent the entry of foreigners with criminal records and to expel those who commit crimes in the country. As for the cuts in public roads, the "social movements" close to the government have announced that they will resume in the last week of January, as they delayed the regulation of the social emergency law agreed with them and passed by Congress.

5. To conclude:

a) Government begins the second half of January reorganizing government and seeking to resume the thrust based on Vidal's role on the electoral front, the borrowing on the economic field and the Davos Forum in foreign policy.

b) After two years since Nisman's death, the lawsuits around him (his death, his allegations and the AMIA) seem to be getting clearer and threaten Cristina Kirchner, who denounces persecution.

c) The allegations against the head of intelligence is a complex political issue for government, not only due to the importance of his role but because it has split the ruling coalition.

d) Government seeks to regain the control of the streets but is not easy as protests on the streets, the social claim against crime, the advance of drugs and the contradictions in police management all converge.

 
BALANCES Y PERSPECTIVAS ¡nuevo!

ARGENTINA:
Balance 2016 | Perspectivas 2017
LATINOAMÉRICA:
Balance 2016 | Perspectivas 2017
MUNDO:
Balance 2016 | Perspectivas 2017

ACTUALIDAD

ARGENTINA
Los próceres y el Bicentenario de la Independencia

LATINOAMÉRICA
Calendario Electoral 2016-2017

INTERNACIONAL
El surgimiento de una nueva era

EVOLUCIÓN SOCIOPOLÍTICA
Balance de la conflictividad social argentina durante abril

DEFENSA
¿Ante una crisis por error de cálculo?

OPINIÓN PÚBLICA
Seguimiento de intención de voto a presidente (Dic 2013 - Nov 2015)

OPINIÓN
Proyección del bicentenario de Chacabuco

SECCIONES

ARGENTINA

BOLIVIA
BRASIL

CHILE

COLOMBIA
COYUNTURA
CUBA
DEFENSA
EL SALVADOR
EVOLUCION SOCIOPOLITICA
HONDURAS
IBEROAMERICA
INTERNACIONAL
LAS AMERICAS
LATINOAMERICA

MEXICO

MUNDO
NICARAGUA
OPINION PUBLICA
PARAGUAY

PERU

URUGUAY

VENEZUELA

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