Oct-19-01

A research work conducted by Centro de Estudios Nueva Mayoría shows the loyalty of the popular vote to the PJ and the negative vote (void and blank) increase in the higher-income sectors in the Greater Buenos Aires.

According to the study, the PJ votes accounted for 29% in one third of the Greater Buenos Aires districts with the lowest level of people below the poverty line (Vicente López, San Isidro, General San Martín, Lanús, Avellaneda, Morón, Tres de Febrero, Hurlingham and Ituzaingó). In the third of the districts with a middle level of the people below the poverty line (San Fernando Berazategui, La Matanza, Quilmes, Almirante Brown and Lomas de Zamora) PJ votes rise to 41.8% and in the third of the districts reporting high levels of people below the poverty line (Florencio Varela, Merlo, Moreno, San Miguel, Esteban Echeverría, José C. Paz, Tigre, Malvinas Argentinas and Ezeiza), votes grow to 48% thus marking a significant increase as the income level decreases.

Poverty line and votes for senator in the Greater Buenos Aires, 2001 (**)

(*)IBN: Unsatisfied Basic Needs. Population that cannot afford basic levels of education, housing and
sanitation. CEPA data based on 1991 Census
(**) Provisory scrutiny
Centro de Estudios Nueva Mayoría

The negative vote (blank and void) follows the opposite trend, since is accounts for 24.3% in the third of the districts with fewer people below the poverty line, drops to 18% in the third with a middle level of poverty and reports the lowest figure with 16.6% in the third with higher poverty level.

The votes for the Alliance drop as poverty increases. In the third with lower population below the poverty line, the Alliance obtained 15.5%, in the third with a middle poverty level only 10.8% voted for that party and in the third with a higher poverty rate, only 8.7% voted for the Alliance.

As to the ARI, the trend is similar to that of the Alliance and the negative vote: the percentage of votes drops as poverty increases. In the third of the parties reporting lower poverty levels, ARI garnered 9.7%, and in the middle third it obtained 7.1% while 5.7% voted for this party in the poorest sector.

In the case of Polo Social, it seized the highest percentage in the middle- poverty level third. In the third reporting the lowest poverty rates it obtained 9.8% and in the third with middle poverty 10.2% voted for this party. Paradoxically, the lowest percentage was obtained in the poorest districts, reaching only 6.7%.

To conclude:

a) PJ votes in the Greater Buenos Aires increase as poverty rises. This confirms the popular vote loyalty to the PJ.

b) The negative vote (blank and void) shows the opposite trend: it rises as poverty declines reporting higher percentages in higher-income sectors.

c) Votes for the Alliance and ARI show the same pattern since the percentage rises as poverty drops.

d) In the case of Polo Social, the lowest vote percentages were obtained in the sectors reporting the highest poverty rates in middle-income districts.

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