In the october legislative elections the richest provinces voted more negatively than the poorest

Nov-05-01

A Centro de Estudios Nuava Mayoria shows that in the 2001 legislative election the countries’ poorest provinces reported that both the voting turnout as well as the trend to vote negatively –blank or void- were lower than the rest of the country whereas the inverse occurs in the highest socio-economic level.

According to the study, in the October 14 legislative elections the voting turnout accounted for 74.7% of the list of registered voters, the lowest percentage since 1983 –4.5 percentage points less than the average which is of 79.2%- and the negative vote, which is the sum of blank, void and contested votes accounted for 20.9% of the total votes issued, representing the highest percentage since 1983.

Poverty, turnout, negative vote of the october 14 election

District

UBN Population* (%)

Turnout 2001

Negative vote 2001

Formosa

34,3

69,6

7,6

Salta

33,9

59,6

8,2

Jujuy

33,6

67,6

19,1

Santiago del Estero

33,6

63,7

5,5

Chaco

33,2

72,4

5,7

Misiones

30,0

71,7

11,2

Corrientes

26,9

70,3

7,6

Tierra del Fuego

25,5

70,5

26,8

Tucumán

24,6

63,5

11,8

Catamarca

24,6

75,5

7,2

La Rioja

23,6

75,8

15,4

Río Negro

20,7

71,4

25,5

Chubut

19,4

72,4

24,9

Neuquén

19,1

75,2

22,9

San Luis

18,7

74,3

6,6

Entre Ríos

17,2

78,4

21,0

San Juan

17,2

75,2

23,5

Country total

16,5

74,7

20,9

Mendoza

15,3

72,6

16,0

Santa Cruz

15,2

77,5

10,4

Buenos Aires

14,7

74,7

24,9

Santa Fe

14,0

75,2

40,3

Córdoba

12,8

72,8

18,7

La Pampa

12,0

78,8

15,1

Capital Federal

7,0

72,1

28,9

*Unsatisfied basic needs: estimate based on 1991 Census (INDEC)
Source: Centro de Estudios Nueva Mayoría

So these two phenomena that express disappointment and rejection toward politics reach their most significant expression in the last election.

Analyzing voting turnout by district, the participation was lower in Salta (59,6%), Tucumán (63,5%), Santiago del Estero (63,7%) and Jujuy (67,6%). For another thing, the districts that reported higher turnouts include La Pampa (78,8%), Entre Ríos (78,4%) and Santa Cruz (77,5%).

A sociological reading of these results shows that in the poorest provinces voting turnout in the election was lower –considering as poverty indicator the percentage of the people with Unsatisfied Basic Needs (UBN) over the total of the provincial population- whereas as the socio-economic level of provinces hoes up, turnout is higher. As the table below shows, in the nine poorest districts, voting turnout remained below the national average and in the four poorest it remained even below 70%.

In connection with the negative vote the inverse phenomenon appears. Except for Jujuy, showing a negative vote of 19.1% -close to the country’s average of 20.9%- in the poorest provinces the sum of blank and void votes is below the national average. The districts that reported lower negative votes are Santiago del Estero and Chaco (two provinces with one third of the people below the poverty line) with 5.5 and 5.7% respectively. As the socio-economic level of provinces goes up, this phenomenon is more significant reaching the peak in Santa Fe (40.3%) and the Federal Capital (28.9%) where poverty is relatively lower.

As to the two electoral perceptions of disappointment with politics – voting absence closer to feelings of disinterest or apathy and the negative vote closer to an active rejection- there is a marked socio-economic difference in the analysis by provinces: the first is stronger in the regions with lower socio-economic level and the second is more relevant in higher socio-economic level provinces.

Si comparamos la no concurrencia sobre el total del padrón con el voto negativo sobre los votos emitidos, vemos que en las provincias de mayor pobreza quienes no votan predominan claramente.

SOURCE: Centro de Estudios Nueva Mayoría

In turn, making the same comparison in the case of provinces with lower poverty, we see the negative vote is much more relevant.

Centro de Estudios Nueva Mayoría

The following conclusions may be drawn:

  • In the October 14 legislative elections of 2001, both abstention and negative votes –the sum of blank, void and contested votes- reach the maximum levels since 1983.
  • A sociological reading at national level shows that the abstention phenomenon is higher in provinces with lower socio-economic level and that abstention is higher as the poverty level by district drops.
  • By contrast, the negative vote phenomenon is relatively low in the country’s poorest provinces and reaches the highest points in districts where poverty is lower such as Santa Fe or the Federal Capital.
  • In general terms, this shows a social difference in the phenomenon of disappointment with politics: disinterest increases as the socio-economic level drops while an active rejection –expressed in the negative vote- increases as the socio-economic level is higher.
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