Analysis: Latin America and the US election

Oct-27-00

Latin America occupies a growing role –though not fundamental- in the US presidential election. Both candidates have introduced into their platforms the FTAA ratification for 2005 but the Republican adds the possibility for Argentina, Brazil and Chile to join the NAFTA. Precisely, Bush sustained Chile is a sound candidate to join the regional deal while the US must consider ‘each one of the regional countries’, underscoring the importance of looking to the Mercosur, specially Argentina and Brazil. As regards Cuba, he rejected the possibility of changing the policy Washington has kept so far. Concerning Colombia, he ruled out the idea of sending troops arguing that ‘ we already have stationed troops on that ground but it is the Colombian military and people who must beat drug trafficking’.

But the Latin American view of the US is mainly focused on the North of the Panama Canal. Currently, some 13 million Hispanics live there, over half of the foreign population living in that country. A few years ago, the ‘Latinos’ accounted for only 9% of the foreign population, in 1990 they had already grown to 40% while in 2000 they are exceeding 50%. Most of them are Mexicans, outnumbering the next largest community by 6-folds, Cubans. Only 1.5 million Hispanics living in the US are from South America, which confirms that the Latin or Hispanic phenomenon originates mainly in Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean.

A few days to go before US elections, the two major candidates do not convey substantive differences as regards Latin America. Gore and Bush support the FTAA while Bush also underscores the achievement of the ‘fast track’ to reach bilateral trade deals with South American countries, with a view to expand the NAFTA. Both candidates support the ‘Plan Colombia’ but are against sending US troops. Both lean toward keeping the embargo against Cuba. However, a differing view rises with the issue of military engagement in the region. While Gore backs intervention in Haiti and claims the eventual approval of this sort of actions Bush deems it as a blunder and maintains he will thwart these moves in the future if they oppose US ‘strategic interests’.

From the Argentine view, the Republican candidate made more reference to Argentina than his Democratic counterpart. Bush’s proposal to forge ties with Brazil, Argentina and Chile and the importance attached to the ‘fast track’ underscore his relevant priority to Southern Cone countries. As to local politics, while the Justicialist party (PJ) and former President Menem in particular, favor an eventual Republican victory, the Alliance instead leans more on the Democratic triumph.

To conclude:

a. Latin America occupies a growing role –though not fundamental- in the US presidential campaign while Bush continues conveying greater priority to the region than Gore.

b. The fact that only 12% of Latino population in the US come from South America proves the Latin phenomenon originates mainly in the sub region to the north of the Panama Canal.

c. A few days to go before US presidential elections, the two major candidates show no substantial differences as regards Latin America.

d. The Republican candidate has made more reference to Argentina than his Democratic counterpart. While the PJ is more receptive to Bush, he Alliance leans on Gore.

Rosendo Fraga

Related Issues:

The Latino community in view of the US election

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