Oct-06-00

Vice President ‘Chacho’ Alvarez’s resignation confirms what the Argentine history proves: when the President and the Vice clash only one of them prevails.

In this case, the President has prevailed supported by the traditional political system established through the two-party Radical-Justicialist scheme, which has ruled Argentine politics for over 50 years.

De la Rúa has scored a clear political victory over Alvarez, but that does not mean he has won the public opinion.

Alvarez’s leaving from the Argentine government entails the break-up of the Alliance. Beyond the fact that some Frepaso factions are still part of the government, the socio-political coalition represented by the Alliance between the UCR and Frepaso since 1997, has come to an end.

In the short term, Alvarez’s attitude removes from the De la Rúa Administration the transparency banner that had been its distinctive characteristic against the PJ and one of the elements that led to last year’s electoral victory.

In principle, a more coherent and integrated government emerges though with a weaker socio-political foundation.

At Congress, the Alliance bloc will break up, leaving a more fragile Executive power in this field.

In order to ensure governability, De la Rúa will surely build more on traditional politics represented by the leaders of the two traditional parties and former Presidents since democracy was restored: Menem and Alfonsín.

The Justicialist party benefits the most in the political-electoral field from the Alliance break-up.

This crevice improves the PJ possibilities to win the next elections, both the 2001 legislative and the 2003 presidential, specially if it forges a coalition with the center-right sectors represented by former Minister Domingo Cavallo.

In view of the Alliance disruption it is highly unlikely for the PJ to be defeated in elections and this stands as the major political consequence of Alvarez’s resignation in the mid-term.

Alvarez quits the Vice Presidency but he won’t give up politics.

He is likely to run for next year’s senatorial election. Whether in the Capital, where he’ll surely win or assuming the challenge of competing in the province, where Alfonsín and Duhalde are slated to run.

In the first case he plans to experience again the ‘90s success without giving rise to a new political situation. However, beating Alfonsín and Duhalde may set the stage for a delayed renewal of the political system.

Alvarez and Cavallo may now share tactical alliances but ideological differences are so deep that completely rule out an electoral coalition.

De la Rúa may call for an election to choose a new Vice President as Peron did in 1952 but he may not as happened with President Frondizi in 1958 or recently with Menem in 1991 when Duhalde left the Vice Presidency. For now, the second in the Presidential succession is Radical senator José Genoud, strongly questioned by Alvarez. But the PJ majority at the Senate could appoint another senator for the office of Provisional President of the Senate, including a PJ advocate.

To conclude, Alvarez’s resignation strengthens De la Rúa in terms of politics but may weaken him as regards public opinion. The Alliance has broken up despite certain Frepaso sectors are still part of the government. In the mid term, the PJ benefits the most in the political-electoral front, especially if it rebuilds the coalition with Cavallo. To protect governability, De la Rúa will seek support in the traditional political system represented by Menem and Alfonsín.

CO PYRIGHT 1997-2000 © Nueva Mayoria.com
All Rights Reserved