This will depend on the results and the margin between the winner and the loser. Based on the opinion polls that point the Frente Sandinista de Liberación Nacional (FSLN) as the winner by 7 to 3%, the fear is that some ruling party sectors reluctant to leave power may unleash some conflicts to numb the electoral process. But I think a minority would take such a stance.

There are many signs of concern in the United States about a new Daniel Ortega’s victory. Much has been said about some State Department officials who want to hamper his victory this Sunday. To what extend is this true, an overreaction or an excuse?

First, we should take into account that there are two trends in the Bush cabinet: a more pragmatic trend led by Colin Powell, that is willing to negotiate and reach agreements with their adversaries such as Iran at present. And a more radical trend, with politicians from the Reagan era who still follow the pattern of a division between the good and the bad.

These two trends are taking shape in Nicaragua. One represented by some officials who have made statements on behalf of the US Embassy but I think the last statements of the Ambassador reached a turning point when he referred to the fact that the United States government would welcome the winner of the election. However, it is clear that the US government prefers the rightist candidate of Nicaragua. It is not bad that they should have their preferences, the bad thing is they have expressed their preferences by trying to influence the electoral vote in Nicaragua.

Has the United States statement have some sort of influence in voters?

I don’t think so. I believe in Nicaragua there has always been an anti-interventionist, anti-American bias as throughout history we have experienced four US interventions. I think the statement has only favored the right-leaning sector in the sense that it encouraged them to say they are not alone. In addition, they were betting that President Bush would make am open statement against Ortega’s election but they failed. So they replaced President George Bush’s statement with that of his brother Florida governor Jeb Bush and devoted eight columns in the press saying ‘the US President’s brother...’

This means that the Cuban-American pressure group still has a major influence in Florida, state that is on the eve of an election for governor. But this Cuban-American group openly against Cuba think that Ortega’s possible victory would put an end to the policy in favor of Cuba’s isolation that has been conducted by Alemán’s administration. I think there has been an overstatement about the rejection of the US government to Ortega’s election.

Now, we must consider that today Ortega is not the guerrilla man of the ‘80s. Ten years have passed and now there is a totally different political scenario for the Soviet Union no longer exists, the Cold War is over, the West-East showdown has disappeared and so Ortega no longer represents the same interests he represented a decade ago.

"The three major issues of the electoral campaign have been unemployment,
poverty and corruption’"

To what extent would Ortega’s victory influence in other Central American countries?

I think that would not only impact on Central American countries but also on Latin America as well. We must remember there is a quest for a new leadership across the region: the PJ victory in Argentina in the past elections proves it. And the same quest is taking place in Brazil, it took place in Chile and Peru while there is a permanent crisis in Ecuador and Colombia. There is a possibility for Latin American countries to seek for an alternative of their own to solve economic problems.

Will conservative voters vote for Bolaños to prevent Ortega’s victory?

The Conservative Party remains in the election as it keeps an anti-corruption policy. The problem of corruption is fundamental for the Latin American policy and in Nicaragua it is a current issue as International Transparency places the country as the third most corrupt in Latin America and the world’s seventh. The three major issues of the electoral campaign have been unemployment, poverty and corruption.

Considering President Alemán has a very negative image among Nicaraguans, can we say that if Ortega wins candidate Alemán loses?

If Ortega wins, Bolaños -Aleman’s candidate- loses but Alemán also wins because he remains at the head of the ruling party. It would be a victory for Alemán because there is a sector of the Partido Liberal Constitucionalista (PLC) that wants to nominate him as likely candidate for the next elections. With Bolaños’ defeat, Alemán consolidates his leadership from the opposition.

What are the immediate challenges of the next President?

The immediate challenge is to deliver on the promises and maintain people’s hope for the first 100 days. The president must take concrete steps that make people feel things changed a bit.

Let us assume, based on the ‘technical tie’ predicted by polls, that the winning candidate will have a narrow edge. What chances of governance will the future President have?

I think the winning political party no matter the margin it obtains has the obligation to create a national agreement. That is the challenge.