Amid the serious economic crisis Peru is facing the electoral process, the two presidential candidates speak against Fujimori’s economic policy while neither seems to have the necessary political support to conduct reforms. What are the economic perspectives of Peru against this background?

Peru is paying the price of a 10-year chaotic administration in terms of economic policy. While Alberto Fujimori’s administration boasted it would foster economic reforms, in fact the only thing he did was to put into practice some interesting and important measures during the first three or four years in office. Then, the economic policy turned into a mixture of mercantilism and neoliberalism, some weird creation that ended up in a corrupted recession that has already prevailed for three or four years.

During last year’s electoral process, in which Fujimori participated ‘irregularly’, government spent a great deal of money, a sort of ‘fiscal spree’, and so now we are under stringent adjustment. The administration taking office on July 28, 2001 will stumble into a complex economic scenario and will have to strike a balance between the measures essential to deliver on the countless promises being made by Alejandro Toledo and Alan García and the need to keep a healthy economy. The success will depend on the type of leadership exerted by the head of government, the way in which he manages to muster support from the different social brackets and the international community. Hence the uncertainty Peru is slated to face after July 28.

Let us picture the following political scenario: Toledo wins the elections with certain edge, he takes power and Alan García comes to lead the opposition. What would Toledo implement to reach governability and how would Alan García conduct his opposition?

Neither of the candidates (Toledo and García) holds majority in Congress. In other words, they are forced to build alliances with other political groups. After July 28 we will probably see an alliance between Peru Posible, the movement led by Alejandro Toledo, and the Frente Independiente Moralizador, headed by Fernando Olivera. By the way, they have already agreed upon a cooperation plan in Congress –other parliamentarians are likely to join in, namely from Somos Perú, Unidad Nacional and Acción Popular. This would allow him to count on a comfortable majority in some pointed issues.

Alan García is likely to conduct what we could label as a responsible opposition, in the sense that he would try to earn credits enabling him to win the presidency in five years’ time.

Let us imagine the contrary: Alan García wins. How would he manage to build his administration and what kind of opposition would he face?

Ever since the beginning of his campaign, Alan García has showed a renewed face. As a different man, capable of learning from his errors. In this second campaign the slogan reads ‘Alan García, President of Concertación’. From the very beginning, he has clearly showed he would appoint independent figures for the Executive Power, thus he would name opposition officials for the Central Bank and Comptrollership offices. He is signaling his willingness toward broadening the limits of the administration. However, he is very far from gathering the majority in Congress so that in this case, instead of forging alliances, García would have to seek support for each measure separately and build temporary alliances with different political groups, depending on the issue at debate. He would have to strike a delicate balance. But it is possible as long as he manages to place people with high gathering and dialogue capacity and a wide range of political forces at the Executive Power.

You just said Alan García would ‘rebuild’ his position with a view to 2005 in case he lost this election. Could Toledo ‘reemerge’ thinking this would be the second defeat in a row?

Hardly. These are not only the two consecutive defeats, the big question is what will happen with his advocates, his team, his movements and parliamentarians. As long as Peru Posible is capable of keeping the cohesion, coherence and consistency and becoming a true political party –instead of what happened in the last elections when Fujimori won and many of Toledo’s parliamentarians moved to the Fujiomorism and other sectors- he could run for the election again and become the viable and reliable candidate in case he lost. Toledo describes himself as a ‘stubborn cholo’ (Indian) and he is likely to continue insisting.

With a view to the politics of the coming years, after the election, is it likely for a political scenario similar to the one existing in the decades previous to Fujimori to rise? I mean, with a leftist electoral reorganization, a democratic right, and the rise of a new centrism.

I don’t think so. I guess the change has been radical. The traditional left has virtually disappeared from the scene, the fujimorism has also disappeared from the political stage and now we have two center left groups fighting for the government in a second round, a small disorganized center right group and what people are longing for is the emergence of new political movements and groups. The scenario has changed: the electoral turmoil of the last years has been such that it will be very hard to rebuild something similar to the three thirds of center, left and right we had in the ‘80s. I think a new political architecture will be set up and in this new game young people will play a major role.

This will also depend on a reform of the current electoral system since it is absurd. From Agenda: Perú we have put forward a host of measure to reform it and strike a better balance between Congress and the ExecutivePower.

Finally, what is the hypothesis over Vladimiro Montesinos, Fujimori’s escaped former advisor?

There many differing hypothesis from the idea that he might be in Peru or may have been killed to the notion he is in Venezuela or Colombia. With all the resources Montesinos has today –we have just seen he earned a 48 million dollar fee for the illegal sale of Russian jets to the Peruvian Air Force- he may be well hidden in some other place…Perhaps not in Latin America due to the nearness. Some hold he is in Morocco, in Belarus or some of the Central Asia republics but now nobody could assert his whereabouts. I do not dismiss the fact that such a complex and troublesome person keeping the secrets of many others should be the target of a murder attempt. Some say he is in the Caribbean Sea with a great deal concrete on his feet. But we are entering the realm of magical realism and speculation…