Alan García seems to have recovered his growing trend of vote intentions. We must remember that little before the May 19 debate, polls showed that García was stagnant as well as Toledo and that the blank vote was on the rise. But after the debate and the exchange of opinions on the following day when Toledo made a series of mistakes and questioned and cursed a reporter while speaking with her on the phone while Alan García was on television, there were some doubts about Toledo and García’s good performance enabled him to regain the upward trend in vote intention.

How do you picture the true political outlook of Peru if the victory of either candidate occurs by a slim margin?

I think it will depend on how they behave both Toledo as well as García as I believe the margin is not as important as the behavior of the eventual president and the second ranked to be elected the leader of the opposition.

If the winner opens spaces, exchanges talks but at the same time keeps a strong stance, that is, exerts his power in a democratic, open and pluralistic way without ceding power, then I think we’ll have a reasonable situation. But if the winner whether he is Alan García or Alejandro Toledo, begins to doubt about his own legitimacy and possibilities to govern without Congress majority –which we know it will turn out that way for either of them- and if he fails to open or create pluralistic spaces with a democratic spirit, then I believe we have the recipe for a period of instability within a framework where the role of the opposition leader is extremely important.

What will be the transition until the July 28 inauguration be like?

Paniagua’s transition administration has succeeded in maintaining a neutral stance. The Executive power has not taken side with any of the candidates. A series of initiatives discussed with political groups have been undertaken thus achieving high consensus. The Paniagua administration leaves a legacy of stability, trust and security though amid economic, political and social stress, but it does not resemble the despair of some six or eight months ago.

Now, whoever the winner may be, he will have to rule strongly from the first day, there’ll be no honeymoon (the honeymoon was already taken by the government of transition) and thus the new head of state will be closely observed from the ‘kick-off in this new game’.

What are the specific characteristics of this election as regards the Peruvian electoral system currently in effect?

The Peruvian electoral system is under the 1993 Constitution –a highly questioned Constitution proclaimed by Alberto Fujimori after a criticized referendum on which existing evidence shows that slim victory in favor of ratifying the Constitution by 51% to 49%, apparently through fraud- establishing a unicameral Congress with 120 parliamentarians and that in the first round the President is chosen but if neither of the candidates gets the half and one more vote, discarding blank votes, the candidates with the majority of votes go to a runoff. But Congress is elected in a first round and so its make-up is known.

The runoff must be conducted in a 30-day timeframe after the first round results are published comprising only the candidates that seized most of the votes, and the one getting at least one vote more than the other is the winner.

How long do you think the President elect will take to work out the cabinet for the next five years?

I don’t think he’ll take more than one or two weeks to appoint the key members of the new cabinet. That is, the four or five key posts including ministers of Economy, Finance, Foreign Relations, Presidency, Defense and Education. I deem it necessary for these posts to be defined in a deadline of 2 weeks so as to halt the uncertainty we already have at present and affecting the transition government in matters related to foreign investment and the economic policies to be outlined after July 28. The rest of the posts –cabinet or public administration- can take more time to be defined as happens in any administration that must work out some 500 nominations.

The Peruvian community living abroad is quite large and had an active involvement in the first round, where Lourdes Flores won. What result do they expect for this second round?

The community is quite large because we have suffered a large Peruvian migration for the last 10 or 15 years of all levels from professionals to workers, thus indicating a strong presence abroad.

Just as in most foreign countries Lourdes Flores won in the first round, Alejandro Toledo is likely to win in the second round. We must consider that many of the people who left the country did it during the period of Alan García or with the clear memory of what his administration had been and have quite a big rejection. They voted for Flores as they considered her the best choice but between García and Toledo, I think most Peruvians will side with the latter.

We must consider that many of the migrants above all those with low and lowest economic levels share an ethical spirit with Alejandro Toledo as they are ‘mestizos’ with a strong Andean component. Besides, the professionals who migrated did it mostly due to the economic crisis during Alan García’s regime.

I believe Toledo’s victory may be quite large abroad unlike what happens in Peru where the margin is slim and in some cases considered a statistical tie. In the coming hours we’ll finally see which of the two candidates prevails.

This election has a ‘photo finish’ ending, to put it in horse race terms.

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The Presidential Debate (available in Spanish only)