Paraguay: the November 18 barometer

Paraguay: the November 18 barometer
The domestic front gives government some fresh air but the foreign field clouds perspectives. As the struggle in the Partido Colorado continues, the November 18 municipal elections will define new leaderships. We discussed these issues in an interview with Paraguayan political analyst José Morinigo.	Nov-01-01

How would you describe the stability level of Luis González Macchi’s administration?

The level of stability has showed positive signs due to the relevant call to National Dialogue by the Catholic Church. This call allowed for some balance and undoubtedly gave some fresh air to government in a time when it was seriously threatened by a series of pressures and movements of social tension -peasant movements, labor force movements, privatization processes that paved the way for an effervescence of the civil servant sector, corruption scandals.

But this call by the Church to a national dialogue with the participation of political parties and sectors of the civil society allowed for a sort of alternatives to give government some fresh air out of the pressures from social movements and an ongoing internal conflict from the Partido Colorado between two lines that have failed to forge some link: oviedismo and argañismo.

"‘Within the Partido Colorado the struggle
surrounds the most relevant issues so
as to obtain the highest possible benefit
from the 2003 general elections’’

We recently saw some signals showing argañismo trying to approach oviedismo to regain efforts, lifting domestic sanctions that weighted on several oviedista leaders...

Argañismo - Movimiento de Reconciliación Colorada (Red Reconciliation Movement)- is experiencing internal rifts not in formal terms. Hence the leadership of current party head Nicanor Duarte Frutos, who manages to take with him most of the leadership. In the light of Nicanor Duarte’s leadership, the most orthodox wing of Nelson Argaña’s argañismo- son to the former vice president assassinated- seeks a reconciliation alternative with other Colorado sectors beginning by joining efforts with old stronista sector (in reference to former dictator Alfredo Stroessner) that still exists and influences the party. But so far no separation and internal division processes have taken place in the movement keeping Nicanor Duarte Frutos’ leadership intact.

The problem is this: to some extent it all points to the future process of leadership and Nicanor Duarte rises as the eventual candidate of the Partido Colorado for the 2003 presidential elections. And with an even longer term projection, Enrique Riera -candidate for Asuncion’s mayoralty- has good chances to obtain a victory after the opposition’s 10-year administration. This would put Nelson Argaña’s leadership in a sort of wait and see stance that as he approaches the party’s leadership other leaderships that displace him may emerge. Therefore, Nelson Argaña’s stance is to question Enrique Riera’s leadership for the future and try to take a more relevant stance within the party structure than that granted by Nicanor Duarte Frutos. Right now the Partido Colorado conveys a sort of fight for more relevant issues so as to get the highest possible benefit from the 2003 general elections.

What is the significance of the November 18 election?

That day the municipal elections will be held across the country. There are around 236 town districts and the significance lies on the influence of the new leadership of the Partido Liberal after the change and the emergence of a new sector of leadership accompanied by old leaders that comprised the strong opposition wing against Domingo Laino who has remained weakened. There is a sort of skepticism with respect to the opposition’s probabilities and a deep effervescence in the Partido Colorado trying to obtain many town districts.

In fact, these elections could become a sort of barometer that from my point of view would be quite negative for the opposition and would mean the emergence of a new leadership in the Partido Colorado even trying to overcome the old duality between Lino Ovideo and the leaders of the party. From my perspective, the municipal elections will have a major significance for the Paraguayan political life.

‘The worsening of the Argentine crisis is the big concern’"

Should the Partido Colorado consolidate its stance, Nicanor Duarte Frutos would surely strengthen his leadership and the need to search for a new strategy for the PLRA which failed in their attempt to divide the colorados but in the end the colorados united and left no chances for the Partido Liberal. The November 18 elections are a major event to measure the potential leaderships emerging from both countries.

What do polls say about Asunción?

The last poll we conducted shows Colorado candidate Enrique Riera leads by 9 points (40%) ahead Carlos Filizzola (30%). PLRA Blanca Mignarro ranks third (20%).

Liberals are quite behind. Is it due to the disappointment with the current administration?

With a sort of timid strategy neither the Movimiento País Solidario - whose candidate is Carlos Filizzola, former mayor who had obtained the first major opposition victory in the first free elections- nor Ms Blanca Mignarro have tried to position themselves by showing the flaws of the Colorado candidate and identifying him with the same party that has controlled Paraguay for 50 years and was the pillars of the dictatorship due to a wrong sort of reconsideration or fear to define the problem in terms of confrontation with this strange idea that people are tired with conflicts and take a critical approach to political parties.

Something that may be totally perceived but that led them to raise a weak strategy. These results that may only change from now to November 18 in case there is some sort of union between the Movimiento País Solidario and the PLRA which may still be possible in terms of the negotiations being conducted so far.

How is Paraguay experiencing the perspectives of a worst Argentine crisis?

It is the major concern. There are good prospects for cotton, soy and wheat harvest which will give some relief to the economy. But the big concern lies on the Argentine crisis and its impact. We are not isolated and it is impossible to think that in such a small economy like ours should not suffer the impact of the Argentine economy. Also the Brazilian economic performance whose devaluation has a strong impact on the small market of Paraguay as it fuels a strong trade flow that prompts a crisis in the Paraguayan industrial sector.