A turnout increase is expected in this election and many credit it to the situation generated after the Peace Process rupture. What is your turnout estimate?

The number of people eligible to vote amounts to 23.8 million and Colombia has generally reported strong abstention, which in some elections has even exceeded 70%. Now everything seems to point that the electoral turnout will be high and that abstention, according to experts, will range from 30 to 40%. This is due to the current situation of the country, the question of the war and the economic situation.

Some 120 congressmen will be elected for the Senate on Sunday and 163 for the Lower House. How many candidates are running for the election?

Right now there are 326 lists for the Senate elected on the basis of national constituency and there are almost 1000 lists for the Lower House, elected on the basis of regional constituency. The House will also receive upon special constituency two ethnic minority representatives, two representatives of aborigine communities and one representative –for the first time- of Colombians abroad.

The Colombian community in the United States is quite large. In what cities are they mainly located?

Mainly in New York, Miami and San Francisco. It is estimated there are around 1.5 million Colombians in these three cities. But there may be around 3 to 4 million Colombians outside the country as the exodus has been quite considerable, above all, in the past two years since due to the worsening of the economic crisis and unemployment people have left the country en masse.

Unfortunately, despite the Process 8000 and the problems related to campaign narcofunding proved in the past elections, the problem fails to improve. There are strong allegations about the existence of campaign narcofunding of some candidates, especially some denounces in Cali, the country’s second important city and there is also one proved purchase and sale of votes. Reports have also been issued about considerable sums of money allegedly used by current congressmen, candidates for re-election, to buy votes. The purchase of votes has been a serious problem in the Colombian electoral process and there are astronomical sums of money at stake. Some candidates are also launching economical campaigns.

Through the ‘Vote Well’ project we have begun a campaign with candidates for Congress asking them to make their funds transparent: they must report the origin of the funds, who donated them and on what they spent it. This is the first time such a campaign has been launched here in a country where most of the people are convinced that most candidates gather funds illegally. This campaign has been welcomed by people because it helps regain credibility and trust in the electoral process. But of the almost 1300 candidates so far only 12 have accepted to join the campaign of making the origin of their funds public.

Are there suspicions that the FARC may be buying votes or supporting determined candidates?

No. In this sense, the major factor and the main allegations come from the influence of paramilitary groups, the extreme right. They have been conducting a horror campaign in the past years and now they have publicly expressed their intention to influence on the new Congress to be elected. In fact, a well-known AUC spokesman (Colombian United Self-defenses) recently stated in New York that they intended to have 30% of the congressmen of the new Congress under their control. And there are many allegations by congressmen said to be endorsed or influenced or threatened to accept. This has been the most heated point of the electoral process.

Due to the mood of violence prevailing in Colombia this campaign has taken a very atypical shape in which candidates have had to resort to the media due to the lack of contact with citizens. How have campaigns turned out in this sense?

The issue of the war has deeply affected the electoral efforts made by candidates and parties. It must be noted Colombia has five congressmen kidnapped in the hands of the FARC, seven parliamentarians of the current Congress have been murdered by and right now presidential candidate Ingrid Betancourt has been taken hostage by the FARC. Adding the paramilitary presence in many areas, the issue of war deeply affects the proselytizing efforts and many candidates who cannot move to certain areas are increasingly resorting to the media to conduct their campaigns. Some candidates have expressed they have conducted their campaigns over the Internet, via emails and a set of new tools since there are some country areas they cannot reach. An NGO even asserted there is around 40% of Colombian territory where it would not be possible to convey the electoral process.

Do people fear going to the polls? What are their expectations for this Sunday’s election?

Undoubtedly tension is strong due to the prevailing situation of war, a series of attacks launched by the FARC in some urban spots, especially in Bogotá in the past weeks, after breaking up talks with government fearing that the March 10 election may prove conflictive and violent. I believe there won’t be greater problems at urban levels but rural areas may be quite complicated because there are conflicting bands strongly influencing several regions in the country and they will surely try to cancel, control or sabotage the election.

Is the Pastrana administration capable of controlling this?

Its capacity is limited. Government has announced strict security plans for the coming elections and is likely to succeed at urban level ensuring an election free from violence. At rural level it is more complicated because there are areas in the country featuring strong clashes between the Army and the FARC, where it will be more difficult to ensure fulfillment of the government plan.

‘The PL’s official candidate is Horacio Serpa, second in preferences.
Alvaro Uribe, a PL dissident candidate, leads Colombians’ preferences’

Considering political parties, what do you think the proportion of forces Congress will be like?

Hard to say. The majority party in Colombia is the Liberal Party (PL) which in turn is strongly split in this election. Here the issue of presidential candidacies gathers importance. The PL ‘s official candidate is Horacio Serpa, who is second in preferences but Alvaro Uribe –a PL dissident candidate- leads preferences. Liberalism is the majority party but it is divided and so are its candidates. We may estimate that all in all the PJ options will be majority in Congress but not as a coherent and disciplined caucus but as a huge series of small subgroups under the banner of liberalism that represent internal trends and independent groups that act on their own. There will also be political minorities –traditional in Colombia- and independent candidates who begin to get stronger and will surely obtain an important representation such as Navarro Wolf’s and the democratic left groups.

Were you surprised at Alvaro Uribe’s staggering growth in vote preferences?

Alvaro Uribe has represented the most outstanding surprise in terms of electoral estimates. In the last survey conducted by Semana he seized 59.5% of vote preferences whereas Horacio Serpa obtained 24 and Noemí Sanín reached only 5.1% . Comparing the survey made between late January and this latter in the last week of February, the trend has deepened and Uribe rose 6 points. We have always had a second round in Colombia (over 51% is required to win the first electoral round) and Uribe may win in first round with this overwhelming percentage.

Interview by Norma Domínguez