‘We may experience either a consolidation of the democratic regime or a turbulent situation’
Interview to Emilio Álvarez Montalván, Nicaragua’s former Foreign Affairs Minister
Jul-19-01

This year Nicaragua is renewing the President. What are the trends?

This election is crucial for Nicaragua as it may represent either a consolidation of the democratic regime: it will be the third election in a row held with freedom, honesty and efficiency. Or it may give rise to a turbulent situation. This alternative has not been clearly defined yet as there is a widespread polarization between two leaders, one from the Frente Sandinista de Liberación Nacional (FSLN) and another from the Partido Liberal Constitucionalista (PLC). The third alternative failed as there were disputes followed by resignations. I totally discard a third position and there’ll be no more than two candidates: Daniel Ortega, former President during the Sandinista administration and Enrique Bolaños Gever, supported by the PLC.
 


"There'll be no more than two candidates"

What are the possibilities for a Sandinista victory?

Should the 40% abstention recorded in the last municipal election happen again, that would favor the Sandinismo, which has cautious, disciplined supporters estimated at 38-40% of the electorate. In this case, they may win in the first round.

However, if PLC center-right candidate engineer Bolaños Geyer succeeds in capturing the vote of that 30 to 40% then he would also have a possibility to win in the first round. It all depends on the respective campaign strategies.

How would you describe the left-right map of today?

The center-right is represented by the Partido Liberal Constitucionalista with his candidate, engineer Bolaños. The left, the sandinistas, remained half-way toward a full-fledged social democracy. They lack a strong personality of their own: their friends are Fidel Castro, Saddam Hussein and Muammar Kadaffi and they adopt an anti-American stance but still have not defined a democrat social plan. Its populist speech speaks against the foreign debt, which is highly problematic as the economic situation in Nicaragua is limited: I don’t think a populist program will ever be fulfilled.

What was the case of Violeta Chamorro? She was proposed to run for a candidacy....

She was proposed at the beginning of the electoral campaign but declined. Although they enjoy a high approval rating (probably the highest), she is not supporting any candidate in particular and has remained at the margin of the electoral dispute.


"Abstention would favor the Sandinismo"


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