Paraguay: the November 18 barometer

Maduro: transforming Honduras
Interview to political analyst Víctor Meza, Director of Centro de Documentación de Honduras	Nov-22-01

What is the political significance of the November 25 elections?

Polls show opposition candidate Ricardo Maduro leading over 10 points government candidate Rafael Pineda Ponce. We think this data reflects to some extent the actual vote intention of Honduran voters.

In political terms this means that for the second time in the political transition of Honduras the opposition may win the elections. This may have an impact on the relations between the Executive and Legislative because the President may be Maduro but Parliament make-up is still uncertain until after the election. I cannot anticipate anything now.

‘Honduras may become one of the
most ungovernable countries of Central
America as Nicaragua and to some
extent Guatemala already are’

How do you think the election will impact within the National Party?

Maduro’s eventual victory will give rise to a transformation in the heart of the National Party, which will no longer be the traditionally conservative party to become a modernizing party in Honduras.

How would you describe the future President’s challenges on the day following the election?

Challenges are huge. First, poverty. We should not forget this country reports 70% of the population below the poverty line. Besides, right now the country is dealing with the drop in the price of coffee and banana plants, the major export products. There are also problems with family remittances after the September 11 incidents in the United States for many undocumented people living there feel unsafe and more exposed to be deported to Honduras. These people represent the major money source of family remittances, which in economic terms account for some 600 million dollars yearly for the Honduran economy.

How can the election affect the chances for Honduras to achieve a more relevant role in the Central American concert?

Stability is translated into economic questions. If the country cannot offer people basic conditions for them to return and to people living in the country employment and economic tranquility, then it is apparent that the country’s governance is precarious. Honduras may become one of the most ungovernable countries in Central America just as Nicaragua and to some extent Guatemala already are.

As to electoral organization, how would you compare Honduras’ electoral preparation in relation to neighboring countries of Central America?

For Honduras this election reasserts the country’s electoral culture for it is the seventh election in 21 years of political transition toward democracy. The election strengthens the country’s democratic culture. Honduras is, so to speak, one of the most stable countries in Central America after Costa Rica. Besides, in electoral terms, it is a nation that can actually take pride on one of the most honorable, decent, stable and transparent electoral processes. The country is democratically health but also suffering the risks of ungovernance we all experience in Central America.