Continuing with economic issues, Bolivia had high hopes to export gas to neighboring countries. How does this issue unfold?

Undoubtedly, the gas issue constitutes the most optimistic question in the country although results will not come quickly. The ‘outburst’ of the gas effect in Bolivia will seriously begin in 2004. This has to do with a staggeringly soaring growth in the country’s gas reserves. In 1996, before the capital inflow fostered by the previous government that allowed for a considerable injection of foreign capital, Bolivia had 5.2 quadrillion cubic feet of gas reserves, that is to say, 10 times more than in 1996. This not only ensures the selling of gas to Brazil, which was already underway with a 3 billion dollar gas pipeline that began to operate last year and will be filled with the 30 million cubic feet a day as from 2004 but also allows the country to export gas to other countries.

Bolivia is negotiating the selling of gas to the United States, especially to California through a triangulation being discussed with Mexico and is also suggesting the possibility to sell gas to Chile as well. This raises big hopes as it is the only truly large field for the country’s economic growth.

Bolivian new and traditional political parties have recently decided to postpone the democratization process for 2002. What is the impact of such a decision on the country’s political scenario?

This has to do with the low image of political parties in relation to the public opinion. By institutionalizing through democratization parties followed the reasoning that if one takes part in democracy in terms of popular vote, the least you can have is an internal democracy with elected secretaries and officials. This had not applied to big parties and they had signed an pact with the Catholic Church to do it before elections begin by 2002.

However, parties have some internal rifts, especially President Quiroga: there is a serious internal crisis in AND (Acción Democrática Nacionalista), Banzer’s advocates want to control the party and Quiroga lacks the necessary internal weight to control it so Bánzer’s name still lingers on and on the AND. This situation hampers democratization heading toward the renewal the President wants, which has derived in a curious negotiation where old parties (the biggest) have bargained with new organizations and decided not to achieve an internal democratization in exchange for not demanding them the 45,000 signatures so that they can participate in the elections. An accord public opinion deem negative but that relates to the pragmatism of the present days.

We just mentioned a recent opinion poll that measured the President’s approval rating. Do you have further information about next year’s election?

Yes, we conduct a monthly follow-up and also assess vote forecasts. This last poll showed two relevant points: first, most voters have not decided their choice or are not interested in voting for the so-called traditional candidates. In other words, the percentage of blank, void and undecided votes is much higher than votes for likely candidates. The candidates are Gonzalo Sánchez de Losada, who was president from 1993 to 1997; Jaime Paz Zamora, who was president between 1989 and 1993; a new political figure Alberto Costa Obregón, who could be deemed as an anti-system or anti-party and Manfred Reyes Villa, a successful mayor of the city of Cochabamba for many years.

Sánchez de Losada and Paz Zamora are almost neck to neck with around 16% and 17% of vote intention. For the last eight months, Sánchez de Losada led vote intention for six months and Paz Zamora, for two. Now they are one point from each other but the range is low. Third comes Costa Obregón with 13%, followed by Manfred Reyes Villa with 10%.

‘We are not amid such a strong turmoil as Bolivia was in October last year but
were experiencing isolated conflicts. The major problem these days is the area of Chapare’.

On the social front, some trouble-spots still exist between certain social groups and government….

We are not experiencing the turmoil Bolivia went through in October last year but we cannot assert either that the situation is calm now suffice it to look at poverty rates and the economic crisis. There are minor isolated conflicts and the major problem these days is the area of Chapare.

In this area government eradicated most of excess coca. There still are some 6,000 hectares and there are powerful trade union sectors pressing soldiers engaged in eradicating plants to pull out the coca leaves completely thus prompting bitter clashes.

The world economic picture is compounded by global slowdown and the terrorist attack against the United States and I guess the crises in Argentina and Brazil are affecting the Bolivian scenario. What are the economic prospects considering the international arena?

Bolivia’s overall economy is experiencing strong recession. Production has been on a tailspin for the three years in a row along with total lack of liquidity and increase in banking moratoriums. We are hoping for a growth that may never reach 1%, which is quite daunting for Bolivia’s economic performance in the last decade.

Quiroga’s prospects have also turned bleak with the still-unsolved Argentine crisis and the terrorist attacks that compound global recession. Therefore, the picture is little encouraging; this is the major concern. The government is fostering some intensive job programs that are palliating for the short to mid-term. It is also trying to own the selling of gas so as to receive gas revenues and other mechanisms to muster reserves in such a critical moment.