demonstrations that occur from time to time, the country’s perception is ongoing government crisis. Now the news is that the Catholic Church is trying to obtain some mediation but it still to early yet (the proposal was made this week) to know whether it will succeed.

How would you assess the democratic situation of Paraguay? Many of those asking for González Macchi’s resignation maintain that Vice President Franco’s succession should be the natural course of actions?

Succession should be the natural constitutional course of action but it is not natural in political terms. There is no question from the constitutional perspective, but there is an abnormal situation from the political perspective in Latin America. The President of the Republic belongs to a party different from that of the Vice President, which would not be a problem had both been elected at the same time. But it was no so. González Macchi emerged after the 1999 crisis when President Raúl Cubas left the presidency and he took power serving at the same time as the head of the Senate under a constitutional order. But, it must be noted the Supreme Court of Justice ratified he had to stay in power until 2003. On the other hand, Julio César Franco resulted from a popular election. In addition, the Vice President’s party calls for the President’s impeachment.

For another thing, the Partido Colorado, which has interruptedly been in power for 54 years, would by no means accept (except that an uncontrollable governance crisis should rise in Paraguay and international pressure emerged) a liberal vice president to take power –the traditionally opposing party to the Colorado. This ‘locks’ any solution of this nature for the time being.

In connection with polls, the last ‘latinbarómetro’ shows that Paraguayans right now are the least satisfied with the democratic system among Latin America, where the average of satisfaction is 48% and in Paraguay, 23%.

The surveys conducted in the country reveal that around 7 and 8 out of 10 Paraguayans perceive the situation is bad or very bad and González Macchi’s approval rating is among the lowest, below 15%. However, this dissatisfaction does not translate into what could be called ‘systematic social response’, that is, the systematic presence of social organizations in constant protest derived from the governance crisis I mentioned. But this has not emerged yet so I guess the scenario now only shows a chronic crisis with worse economic, social and political variables but before reaching outbreak though it sometimes seems to be on the verge of it.

"González Macchi’s approval rating is among the lowest, below 15%"

For now we can assert there is no outbreak but, could people make a ‘call’ for a more authoritarian government style?

It is true that in Paraguay apart from the low satisfaction with the democratic system there is almost no democratic tradition before 1989. On the other hand, the Paraguayan democracy has still not settled in the people, mainly because the transition period since 1989 was terrible in terms of the economy and society, and this made most of the people link democracy to inefficiency, lack of tangible results on the socio-economic front.

Hence Lino Oviedo’s popularity at a time (he is still is in some way) and hence the good image of former dictator Alfredo Stroessner in 6 or 7 out of 10 Paraguayans. It is also perceived that the international situation also makes any authoritarian rule unviable. Neither is it viable a coup d’état like the ones launched in Latin America in the ‘70s. That is why there are no solutions neither to deepen democracy nor to go back in time and so there is this boggled down situation that now the Catholic Church is trying to solve. But it is still to early to say whether it will be solved though I daresay the chronic crisis is set to continue for a while.

What and who preserves González Macchi in power?

First, it may seem paradoxical but the liberal Vice President, whose party ‘wants his head’, preserves him. With a liberal Vice President, although the Partido Colorado may question González Macchi, it will never use the questioning to beat him because it knows a liberal president would immediately take power. This is a sort of guarantee the President has. Second, what I just said about the social mobilization capacity both the civil society as well as its intermediary organizations, is quite limited. Third, the impeachment attempt in Congress fails to prosper as two thirds of deputies and senators are required and both liberals and colorados are segmented into mini-seats, which makes it harder to reach agreements of this kind. And also the international community. The combination of all these factors makes status quo as it is now. Unfortunately, Paraguay is quite an unpredictable nation and so the content of this talk may turn out different in some weeks.

What is the current government make-up?

Right now, government is made up by President González Macchi with the majority sector of the Partido Colorado, which is the sector of Nicanor Duarte Frutos, his former Education ministry, who truly intends to run for the 2003 elections and would not like a liberal enter the Government Palace before him. The other political support is minimum from what in a time was the country’s third political force –Encuentro Nacional party. A 10 year-old party emerged from a large Paraguayan business sector.

"Nicanor Duarte Frutos is the most likely Partido Colorado candidate"

You will be holding presidential elections in 2002 and also in November...

The November municipal elections will be the acid test of the popularity reached by political parties at that time.

Regarding 2003, it is hard to say as the picture is in constant change. We should analyze perhaps how the Partido Liberal would perform next year, whether it will be able to ‘rule out’ discontent as it is the country’s second party and so whether it will be able to become the ‘vector’ of social unrest. On the other hand, we should see what happens with the new candidatures that may rise –even a businessman is supposed to run. As to the Colorado party, the major question lies on whether González Macchi with his poor performace will affect Nicanor Duarte Frutos, the most likely candidate of the Colorado Party.

Has Oviedo appeared some time in the light of the PLRA and Partido Colorado showdown?

Not Oviedo as Oviedo. Sometimes the oviedismo approaches the Partido Liberal, mainly because there is a fundamental coincidence in its dispute policy toward González Macchi. But Oviedo as a figure has been keeping a very low profile, I guess as part of his judicial strategy in Brazil.