‘Today there are virtually no possibilities for a military coup to take place in Paraguay’
Interview to Carlos Martini, Paraguayan political analyst
Jul-05-01

The latest polls about González Macchi’s popularity were incredibly low, standing at virtually 0% of popular prestige. How is that explained?

It is mainly explained because right now unemployment has reached unprecedented levels in Paraguay –around 16%- when two years ago the jobless rate accounted for 12.5 or 13%, when he took office. On the other hand, the economy is on vegetative condition reporting a 0 to 1% decrease last year and similar estimates for this year whereas the population grows at 2.6%. In addition, the existing economic downturn, many shops are closing and the country experiences a process of desindustrialization- the industrial share in the economy is very low in Paraguay: only 14%. And the small middle-class was affected the most by economic stagnation and the financial crisis that affected small savers by the mid-90s. The failure for the economy to pick up plus the feeling that the government has little ability to rule explain the sharp drop in González Macchi’s popularity.

'González Macchi's solitude
is huge'

Are you exactly in the same situation as Argentina....

They are very similar in terms of the economy. The only difference is that in the last six years there were no attempts against the constitution in Argentina, that is, coup attempts. No Vice-president has been assassinated and nobody feared for an imminent ‘cuartelazo’ (military uprising). Here we experienced one last year and the recurring pattern is political instability.

How would you describe the current relationship between Oviedo and Franco?

A sector of oviedismo voted for Julio César Franco. Many alliances have also been forged –at the Lower House, for instance- between the ovidesimo and liberalism. The fact is that González Macchi lacks even the support of his own party’s president –Nicanor Duarte Frutos, who said that while he supports the impeachment against the President of the Republic he does not support him and considers he is not performing well in his office…to such an extent that he has given him a 30-day timeframe to replace some figures. In other words, his solitude is huge. Not only at the level of liberalism and oviedismo but within his own party as well.

What do you think about today’s civilian-military relations in Paraguay considering that the killing of several oviedist militaries some years ago is still alive in the memory of many people?

The possibilities for a military coup today are virtually zero because there is no military leadership and there would be no civilian support and especially because the international community –Mercosur and United States- would strongly oppose the measure. Besides, there is no clear offensive from the Armed Forces with a strong leadership. All this makes a classical military coup unviable. However, the danger for a coup is always looming. A political instability is high, should a ‘gap’ rise now, it will have to be filled by an institution. And unfortunately that institution may be the military. Although, I insist, it is highly unlikely at the moment.

Could you give us a forecast of the political scenario in the next months and the new coalitions that may emerge?

It is hard to say. August 15 is a key date as from that moment if either the President or Vice-president is removed elections will not be called but Congress will have to appoint someone. Some speculations hold that after August 15 there’ll be news. That is all I can say for now as the scenario is unpredictable and changing.


Interview made by Norma Domínguez
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