This is an electoral period in Central America. The first elections will take place in Nicaragua –presidential and legislative- in November 4. What are the trends less than two months before the election?

Analyzing Nicaragua amid the Central American background, it is important to bear in mind during the last century the country experienced 38 years of caudillismo (strong man rule) and after 10 years of sandinismo and only as from 1990 did the country begin to emerge as a democracy. Nicaraguan institutions are somewhat fragile compared to other countries where they perform apolitically such as the judiciary, the legislature, electoral court, etc. In Nicaragua, they are still subject to political pressures.

Since 1980, Daniel Ortega (currently deputy from the Frente party in the Legislative Assembly) has run for every election held in the country. During the sandinismo, elections were held twice, he ran and won. Then he lost in the 1990 elections against Violeta de Chamorro, he was also beat by Arnoldo Alemán and is now running again at age 55 as candidate of Frente Sandinista.

It is important to understand that the Frente Sandinista in Nicaragua permanently has 1 out of 3 voters. In the elections, they may obtain 39 to 40%. This seems to be the ceiling of sandinismo, for since 1990 so far it has not managed to exceed 40% in vote intention. So one of the things the Frente did with Ortega leading the group was talking to President Alemán with a view to reforming the Constitution –as I just said the country has weak institutions- and they dropped the minimum necessary amount to win the first round. Before, to be elected it was necessary to have 50% plus one vote to win. Now, after the talks, the minimum declined to 40% plus one vote and with 35% of votes they can also win if the one leading holds at least 5 points ahead the closest adversary.

Considering the vote average historically, the sandinismo could win the election...

That is right. Many people have asked me what Alemán obtained in return. Well, as part of the constitutional reform request, the current President asked a new constitutional provision in return granting former presidents a permanent seat for the rest of his life. In other words, that Arnoldo Alemán becomes life deputy in the Assembly and thus gain immunity. We definitely believe Alemán has reasons to need immunity. This is quite well-known.

According to the latest polls and leaving the undecided aside, Ortega would be leading by 40 to 44%, enough to win the election. Not long ago, the opposition to sandinismo was split: Dr Alemán’s Partido Liberal Constitucionalista (PLC), which was Anastasio Somoza’s party, whose candidate is 73 year old businessman Enrique Bolaños –quite old for a country where 16 years old are eligible to vote and where over 50% of voters are under 30- and the Partido Conservador, which has always existed in Nicaragua but was eclipsed during Somoza’s term and had launched its candidacy for this election.

So while the Partido Conservador was performing well, in the split between liberals and conservatives Ortega was going to win. However, mounting pressure by the business sector, people who recall the sandinista period, attempted to hamper the Conservador party from insisting on his presidential candidature and pushing voters not to choose sandinismo. And the arguments against Bolaños (such as ‘he is old’, he ‘was part of Alemám’s administration’, etc) were counterbalanced by the thought that ‘it would be worse if Ortega returns to power’. Therefore, right now, where the Partido Conservador has collapsed –the latest polls only give him 7 to 8% of votes. Bolaños gathers a figure close to Ortega’s and at present it is uncertain who may win.

‘Ortega is expected to seize between 40 and 44% of votes, enough to win the election’

Entrepreneurs’ fear for a possible return of sandinismo also prevails among the people?

That is a point. If we consider that over half of voters are 30 or under and that at 16 one is eligible to vote, then there are too many voters that do not remember the sandinista era, which ended in 1990 (11 years ago) and considering the Nicaraguan situation has not improved neither with Violeta nor with Arnoldo, the argument that ‘Ortega will be worse’ is not as convincing right now.

What is Alemán’s approval rating like at present?

Arnoldo Alemán is almost the least popular president in our region. Right now he has a highly negative opinion and people reject him. Most of the people feel the country has not improved, but above all, his behavior in public is highly questioned: in one of the Hemisphere’s poorest countries, hit by drought and starvation in the northern part, the fact that the President (who weighs almost 300 pounds) claims there is no starvation in Nicaragua, is badly perceived among the people.

Let us now pass to Honduras, which on November 25 will be holding presidential and legislative elections. How could you describe the pre-electoral atmosphere?

Besides Costa Rica, Honduras has the longest-running institutional scheme. The two parties that contended in the election gather over 100 years of rule each –the National Party and the Liberal Party. Neither of them has existed for less than 125 years and participated in the country’s political life. The most conservative National Party candidate is Ricardo Maduro and the Liberal Party, which is now in power, candidate is Rafael Pineda Ponce.

President Carlos Flores holds the highest approval rating among the region’s heads of state.

What do polls show?

At present, Maduro leads at around 11 points ahead of Pineda Ponce. The problem in Honduras is that the Liberal Party –currently in power with President Carlos Flores –I must say Flores has the highest approval rating among all heads of government in the region- has been in power for eight years and there is the idea that it is healthy to change. For another thing, Pineda, over 70, lacks the looks of a leader people are hoping to have. He looks more like a rural professor and this is affecting him.

Other factors also influence, for instance the fact that Pineda and the Liberal Party (and not with the President’s consent but themselves alone) tried to hamper Ricardo Maduro’s registration as candidate. Maduro was born in Panama and the Constitution says that to become President in Honduras one has to be born in Honduras and so there was this whole institutional issue driven by the Liberal Party and in the end Maduro was registered. Before public opinion, he looked as if he had been persecuted, something that benefited him as he became the victim.

Early next year, Costa Rica will be voting for President and Vice President of the Republic, Deputies at the Legislative Assembly and Aldermen (city council members). What are the major parties to struggle for power until 2006?

Elections in Costa Rica will be held on February 3, 2002. Parties involved include: National Liberation Party (PLN), one of the most well-known, led by José María Figueras and the Social Christian Union (PUSC), the one in power at present. The PLN candidate is Rolando Araya, an experienced chemical engineer and the PUSC candidate is psychiatrist Abel Pacheco, who for many years served as Director of the Mental hospital, hosted a TV program and enjoys a very good image.

‘Both candidates are almost in a tie, with a slight edge in favor of Abel Pacheco’

What are the current electoral trends in Costa Rica?

The National Liberation, which won the Civil War in 1948, is the strongest party. Currently, the PLN, which supports Araya, has between 5 and 8 points more advocates than the PUSC. For another thing, as to vote intention, the two candidates are in a tie, with a slight edge for Abel Pacheco. In other words, there is currently a dilemma among those of us who analyze the situation about what is it that will win: person or party. If the Costa Rican citizen decides on a party basis, then Rolando Araya will win. If people choose the person, Pacheco.

Anyway, there is a long way to go before the election. Trends have not cleared yet as both candidates were chosen in June and July.