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It will be harder
for President Fernando Henrique Cardoso to nominate his successor. The
most important thing for the president is popularity: it is very relevant
in Brazil since congressmen pay much more attention to the President when
his popularity is higher. Of course, the lower the growth and the higher
the unemployment rate due to power scarcity, the more difficult it will
be for the President to convince party coalitions to accept a single candidate.
The coalition is composed of four parties with their own leaders.It is
a hard process to convince four parties and a set of factions within every
party to accept a determined candidate if the government is less popular.
It is even more difficult to resist the temptation to present a candidate
of its own and not support the President’s candidate.
How do you think the coalition will
solve its differences with the rightist sectors of the ruling coalition
–PFL and PPB?
The Partido del Frente Liberal (PFL)
is likely to remain allied to the President’s party - Partido Social
Demócrata Brasileño (PSDB). But I am not so sure about
the PPB. It is not a big party but it has its weight.
The PMDB –center party- (Partido del
Movimiento Democrático Brasileño) is the most important
party. It is large but its factions are a sort of parties within the party.
Some speak about continuing with Cardoso, others propose to present their
own candidate –for instance Itamar Franco, Cardos’s predecessor- and break
up with the coalition and perhaps set up another coalition with opposition
parties. The key is whether the PMDB will remain in the coalition or end
up setting up a new opposition.
What would the already complex Brazilian
foreign policy be like with a leftist administration to face the challenges
of the FTAA and South American integration?
It is difficult to make forecasts. Polls
show Lula (PT) from the traditional left and Ciro Gómez from the
‘light’ left –a sort of Tony Blair’s Third Way- report higher approval
ratings. If some of them were elected president of Brazil, the economic
policy would change. In connection with the FTAA, Lula and the PT are
against: they want to reinvent and improve the Mercosur and refuse to
join the FTAA. Ciro Gómes’ stance is harder to guess.
But many things would stay the same.
For instance, the left will not renationalize or change the relations
with its neighbors –Argentina, the Mercosur countries or Peru. The big
differences among parties relate to internal policy matters. Leftists
may not think carefully about what to do with the Foreign Relations Ministry
if they were in power. We are not going to see many changes except for
one thing: the left disapproves of free trade agreements, especially with
the United States.
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