In terms of the organization of the election. Is it all ready for the polls?

This is one of the major problems. First, because not only is it a problem related to the mechanisms, whether id papers work or the vote-counting software will work on election day. It is a much deeper problem linked to the credibility of the electoral body. We must remember the current electoral body results from a pact between Daniel Ortega and Arnoldo Alemán that was later translated into a constitutional reform that virtually split the electoral body between the two leading parties, like a power share.

So now we have a partisan electoral council composed of seven judges –three Sandinistas, three liberals and the President, who was appointment mainly to represent the Church, who is liberal- is divided according to party guidelines. To give an example, quorum may be broken and no sessions may be opened in the council so votes would not be counted on November 4. This is peoples’ major concern, the international community’s overriding worry and I daresay it is the major uncertainty harassing Nicaragua today. Hence the importance of election-monitoring bodies such as the national Etica y Transparencia (ethics and transparency) or the OAS, Carter Center among others. That is, we are heading for the election struck by high uncertainty over the little-reliable electoral body.

What do surveys show about electoral trends?

Well, until 15 days ago all surveys pointed to Daniel Ortega at the top of preferences –Frente Sandinista candidate. However, comparing the trend of two months ago, Ortega’s edge over Enrique Bolaños –Partido Liberal Constitucionalista (PLC) candidate- who was always on second spot is narrowing. Today, the edge is around 2 to 3. It is narrow but even according to this forecast Ortega still wins in first round. What we expect from now until November 4 –that is 75-day campaign- is that edge may narrow even more. That is why right now nobody dares to make a categorical forecast as to who will win, precisely because the result is uncertain and highly contended as the third party –Partido Conservador (PC), is totally out of plumb. As we’ll surely see a highly contended result it is essential that the Supreme Electoral College should work effectively because as a partisan council it is reasonable judges take sides.

What can you tell us about the polarization? We understand the two major sectors, Sandinismo and liberals have traditionally had opposing political-ideologies.

It is a polarized election indeed. Anyway, we may remember there’s a third PC candidate, from a party that endured bombing pressures from the US Embassy and others to remove it from the electoral contest. They have managed to weaken it quite a lot in fact. There has been no electoral debate indeed. Unfortunately, there’s no certainty that a presidential debate will take place for people to see the two candidates, compare their differences and agreements. In fact, if one analyzes the texts of their proposals, they do not make notably different promises. Daniel Ortega is mainly preaching the things he will not do and tell people there will be no confiscations or property expropriation, no military service, no clashes with the Church, the United States or the media and into the future he speaks of a moderate plan to reschedule producers’ debts, create jobs and grant independence to the Central Bank.

‘Should Bolaños win he would have to face an Assembly controlled by the two parties that
forged the pact and the two leaders of Nicaragua’s politics, Ortega and Alemán’

Candidate Bolaños has a more organized job-creating plan for the different sectors but Bolaños’ problem is he is viewed as continuing with the outbound administration of President Alemán, who is perceived as highly corrupt and is not accused of corruption himself for he is an honest man but of not having done a thing to combat corruption when he served as Vice-president.

How do the most conservative sectors, the business sector and the US view the Sandinismo’s new moderate attitude. Do they really believe it?

I believe most of them do not believe it. Daniel Ortega is an icon. Rather than famous or believable for what he says, he is a strong icon. So the business sector is quite uncertain about him. Should Ortega win I think there would be a stand-off in investments, deposits in the financial system as there is no credibility. We should wait and see what happens in this 75 days. Perhaps Ortega is willing to take a clearer stance on his proposals. Of course, if he now announced a cabinet (I don’t think he has a cabinet already) where he could say such and such will be my Finance Minister and Central Bank Chairman, the business community would be much pleased. But uncertainty looms large.

So uncertainty is more related to Ortega himself than the Sandinista party?

Absolutely. If the Frente Sandinista candidate had been any other person, precisely because people are convinced that should the Frente take power, the policies cannot be much different from those of the current government because there is no economic margin to conduct a different economic policy. But there may be different styles of government. The current administration has been harshly criticized for paying soaring Executive salaries that are the highest in Central America. Then a new administration arrives and drops those salaries. This would be well-viewed in Nicaragua and is feasible as well.

What would happen if the Sandinismo won and what would happen if the liberalism won?

Should the Sandinismo win then we would experience quite a complex process while Ortega clarifies his proposals. There would be a standstill attitude in the country, a ‘wait-and-see’ on the part of donors –and Nicaragua is heavily dependent on foreign dues and remittances- above all of investors. We would have to see how the financial system reacts –most of the money in this country is in dollars and savings deposit holders would surely withdraw their money with a view to bring it back depending on Ortega’s actions. How long can this standstill last? Some estimate six months, others venture a year. I wouldn’t call that moment a crisis, it is just a recessive economic period. Once this time passes I truly believe nothing too different from the current reality will happen.

Should Bolaños win, that would never happen. I mean the economy would continue as now but a new sign of political uncertainty would rise because we must remember that former president Alemán, resulting from that pact, will join to the National Assembly, and has a gifted bench as Pinochet in Chile. Alemán joins the National Assembly and has already said he wants to chair it. Then Bolaños would confront Alemán as Chairman of the Assembly and Ortega who would also be in the Assembly. The Assembly would be controlled by the two parties that sealed the pact and by the two leading figures of the Nicaraguan politics. This will be the great challenge Mr. Bolaños may face.