| ‘Honduras is still a two-party country’ | |
| Interview to Guillermo Casco, Honduras |
Aug-24-01
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You chaired the Honduran Electoral Court and now you are running as social-democrat candidate for the Tegucigalpa mayoralty, so you can clearly understand the coming general elections (presidential, legislative and municipal) from many perspectives.Considering all aspects, how would you describe the current electoral organization for the election in Honduras? I confidently daresay the country has
made strides in creating a good administrative architecture. All paperwork
is effectively done. What sparks some problems is the turnout of new
voters. But all citizens can be sure they will be included in registers
timely and that the election-related material will be on the right place.
From the technical and administrative point of view, the state ensures
citizens will have the right to vote. Now people are mostly sure and
we may be facing a new phenomenon over which there are some concerns,
among them the poll’s turnout. Why do I say turnout? Because Honduras
has traditionally been a country with an 80% electoral turnout. |
![]() 'Much progress has been made in the administrative capabilities for the elections. The only problem is the likely reduction in turnout' |
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Some voices are signaling vote abstention could increase. There are no clear reasons of what could cause this but anyway it would be a phenomenon we should be cautious about to actually perceive the Honduran electorate, one of the few electorates of the ‘world’ –so I say as Honduras is one of the world’s leading turnout rates. Perhaps Honduras is today the most stable country from the political and democratic view among the Isthmus countries. This is what we think and is partly showed by the electoral turnout. On the other hand, there is a figure we would like to change. It has to do with two parties that date back to the XIX century, consolidated as political organizations at the beginning of the XX, dominated the political scenario throughout the XX, we enter the third millennium –XXI century- and they still remain as the two parties –National Party and Liberal Party- that gather the highest number of electoral preferences.
After them only three relatively young parties were formed. Two of them 20 years old and the third, some 8 years old. In other words, there is a total of five political parties. But theoretically and practically as well, Honduras is still a two-party country: there is not a single party right now capable of challenging the winning positions to the two historical parties. Polls show Ricardo Maduro from the National Party leads.... This is the atmosphere after polls have been made. The ruling party is the Liberal Party, whose candidate Rafael Pineda Ponce admits he lags behind in polls and boasts about his excellent persuading skills and states the edge is narrowing. I must confess that I do not know the current extremes, but it has been widely accepted that Ricardo Maduro leads polls. But I cannot specify the speed at which the edge is narrowing. What would happen if the opposition took power? Many things would change, basic things I would say. First, the current administration has two terms in office. The natural term erosions proposals, resources, tires people out and behind that lies a sociological phenomenon that will have to show its results. The youth of 2001 were born in the first years of the ‘80s, their childhood, primary and secondary educations, their juvenile stage lived in democracy but they still haven’t found the painter with the appropriate brush to pain the dreamed picture. So the future administration will pay special attention to responses. How do you think the forces proportion will be like between liberals and nationals? I think people will not give over 70% of votes to traditional forces and that the National Party will win Congress due to some natural attrition. But also there is deep disappointment toward the role of Congress. |
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