Unprecedented political weakness
Rosendo Fraga
Estimated reading time: 3min 03secs
Dec-19-01

The De la Rúa Administration marked its second year in government on December 10 within the framework of unprecedented political weakness.

The Argentine history shows that governments were hit by crises between the end of the third year and the beginning of the fourth in office.

The government of President Castillo was toppled in 1943 on the outset of the sixth year in office. Perón fell in September 1955 three months after beginning the fourth year of his second term. Frondizi was overthrown by a military coup two months after reaching four years in power. Illia fell under similar events on the outset of his third year in government while Isabel Martínez de Perón was toppled two months before reaching three years in power
 


'In his second year in office, De la Rúa experiences a
positive image of his administration 7 points lower than
that of Alfonsín at the end of his term and 14 points
lower than that of Menem under the same circumstances'

There is only one case of such a fast political erosion: Hipólito Yrigoyen was toppled in 1930, a month before reaching two years in power. In the case of De la Rúa, his administration was hit by the political crisis before marking the first year in office when Vice President Alvarez resigned and reaches the second year of term in conditions of unprecedented political weakness.

A survey conducted in the Federal Capital and Greater Buenos Aires by Centro de Estudios Nueva Mayoria in the first week of Ddecember shows that only 4% hold a positive image of President De la Rúa’s administration, 25% hold a fair opinion, 69% hold a negative image and only 2% answered not to know.


Centro de Estudios Nueva Mayoría,
Capital and Greater Buenos Aires, December 2001, 728 cases

This means the presidential management approval is the lowest since democracy was restored in 1983. While De la Rúa holds only 4% of positive image in his second year in office, in his worst moment, Alfonsín‘s anticipated exit from government amif hyperinflation held a positive image of 11% while Menem reached 18% at the end of his ten and a half year in government experiencing strong political erosion.

Comparing approval ratings of Alfonsín-Menem-De la Rúa administrations

Approval Rating

Alfonsín
(1989)

Menem
(1999)

De la Rúa
(2001)

Positive (%)

11

18

4

Fair (%)

22

26

25

Negative (%)

65

55

69

Don’t know (%)

2

1

2

Positive / Negative

0,1

0,3

0,0

Total

100

100

100

Centro de Estudios Nueva Mayoría,
Capital and Greater Buenos Aires ., December 2001, 728 cases

Table comparing the three administrations, years, months in office, positive, fair and negative approval ratings or ‘don’t know’ of the presidential performance.

Thus in his second year in office, De la Rúa’s positive image of his administration is 7 points lower than that of Alfonsín at the end of his term and 14 points lower than Menem’s under the same circumstances.

A look to Latin America shows that De la Rúa is today the President with the lowest approval among the public opinion of his country except for Paraguay, where President González Macchi barey reaches 2%.

To conclude:

a) The De la Rúa Administration is the Argentine government that has turned weak faster in history except for Hipólito Yigoyen in 1930.

b) The approval rating of the administration among the public opinion is the lowest since 1983 being better than the one reported by Alfonsín and Menem at the end of their administrations.

c) In Latin America, De la Rúa is the President experiencing the lowest approval rating among the public opinion except for the Paraguayan President.


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