1. The political crisis became institutional after Alvarez resigned. A cabinet reshuffle is a political fact, but the Vice President’s resignation is an institutional one. The underlying conflict is of political nature. When Alvarez officially stated, denouncing the alleged bribes, that ‘this may be the Italian mani pulite’, he raised the conflict. The Italian crisis triggered the dissolution of the two traditional political parties –Socialists and Christian Democrats- the government collapsed, new elections were called, an electoral law reform was submitted and the many politicians were imprisoned. No renowned UCR or PJ leader could agree with this scenario but Cavallo for he and Alvarez are the political beneficiaries of the traditional party system crisis. The former in the name of the center right and the latter, the center left.

2. But the Alliance crisis has also changed the course of governability. Until Friday 6 the Alliance cohesion stood high. Now, there’s the possibility for UCR and PJ agreements. Within this framework, both Alfonsín and Menem, gather political momentum as the leaders of their respective parties. The former played a pivotal role in Genoud’s resignation and the latter was one of the opposition leaders who supported De la Rúa the most in his clash with Alvarez on the day of his resignation. The PJ senators’ decision to vote for a radical provisional president of the Senate, when they could have imposed a PJ member due to their majority, constitutes a sign of the future governability. Opposition governors will also play a key role in this scenario.

3. Alvarez’s resignation triggers the political collapse of the Alliance. The coalition may be formally maintained though the sectors of society that voted for it seeking political renewal are represented today by Alvarez’s opposing stand. The Vice President’s position may gather followers among the PJ, the UCR and the center right but lacks the strength to break the traditional bipartisanship in the short term. He could well resume the phenomenon of the Broad Front (Frente Grande) and the Frespaso in the ‘90s, challenging bipartisanship.

4. Alvarez has won in public opinion. His speech putting into question the old policy and demanding more honesty and transparency matches the people’s claim. But it is doubtful whether he will be able to translate this support into a political turn. Besides, Alvarez runs the risk of consolidating his image of staunch opponent rising doubts about his ability to rule.

In turn, De la Rúa has lost in public opinion but won in politics for he succeeded in showing that he supports bipartisanship and that during the conflict with Alvarez he was forced to surrender the latter. The question is how he will manage to revert the public opinion

5. The traditional political system is unlikely to collapse after the ‘mani pulite’in the short term. Neither is it easy for Alvarez to resume a new Frepaso displacing the ruling UCR to a third place as happened in 1995. In turn, despite internal clashes, the PJ has become a plural political party likely to return to power in 2003 and ruling out the possibilities for it to disappear. The political key of the ‘90s has been the change in electoral coalitions and the crisis is likely to cause a new shift on this front, as happened by the early ‘90s with the PJ and the center right and by the end of last decade the Alliance between the UCR and the Frepaso.

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