The election ended in a draw as to popular vote. There is a tight margin of only two tenths. And the electoral vote was also a draw since it seems they will end up with a difference of three electoral votes. Draw at the Senate, where they will get 50 and 50 and virtually another draw at the House, where the difference will be of 3 to 4 votes between the two parties.

All in all, the United States is now an equally divided country between Democrats and their views and Republicans and their views.

The Latin vote favored the Democratic Party and Al Gore just as we expected. The rate was two to one, according to the latest polls conducted on the election day.

Gore seizes 64% of the Latin vote and Bush 32% almost matching the national poll results conducted by the US five TV chains, the famous exit polls –which hit the hardest time on Tuesday night when they blundered in Florida- but as a rule are reliable and provide an almost exact picture of results. Undoubtedly, the Hispanic vote turned out as expected.

It all seems to point that Cuban-Americans –and this has risen from the ballots, the tally in different precincts, where Cuban-Americans vote here, in the south of Florida- favored Republican candidate George Bush by 85% against 15% and considering Bush’s lead in Florida of around 1,000 votes and that the state of Florida will be the make or break of the election –since Bush may win thanks to this state- we could say the Cuban-American vote was decisive and that perhaps the Elian González case cost Al Gore the presidency.

Of course. I believe from now on Hispanic voters will be highly considered. The Cuban-American vote has been deemed as relevant in Florida in recent elections but now California, Texas and New York will gather more importance.

Above all, the vote of new immigrants who are mostly Mexicans. However, a South American movement is also having its effect, especially Andean countries such as Colombia, Venezuela and Peru, full of people fleeing economic woes.

The vote of new immigrants is growing fast. In 1990 it accounted for 80% for US-born Hispanic and 20% for immigrants born in Mexico or another Latin American country. In 2000, only 10 years later, it accounts for 50% for Hispanics born in the US and 50% for overseas immigrants. The power of the US immigrant is growing very fast. Analyzing figures, I believe in 10 years from now, the immigrant’s vote will weigh at least twice as the US-born Hispanic’s vote and this has considerable consequences from the view of the governmental agenda. For instance, the US will attach priority to Free Trade Agreements for they are extremely important for the new immigrant and will also change the way campaigns are mounted because most of these new immigrant prefer to receive information in Spanish. Around 6 million Latinos took part in last Tuesday’s election, 3 million were born in the US. In ten years, we will account for some 7 or 8 million immigrants from Mexico, Central America and South America and only 4 million Hispanics born in the US. Twice.

I don’t think watershed political changes will occur in the US in the next two or four years at least. The big proposals made, that of the Republican party for instance, privatizing part of Social Security or putting tax breaks will not be successful with a fully-split Congress. Bush will never get the votes to approve this sort of proposals.

On the other hand, if Al Gore ends up winning the election, he won’t be able to get the drugs benefits for the elderly or his tax-cutting program after the Democratic fashion, that is tax breaks for the middle class and the poor only. In other words, neither of the parties will ultimately achieve much at least in the next 2 years because as this is virtually a draw neither will have true majority. Changes will be small and insignificant. Financial markets are happy because now the government ‘can do nothing’…

From the technical point of view, yes. He would have both houses on his side. However, the Senate could have a 50 and 50 division and there the Vice President has the casting vote, which would obviously be for Bush. At the House of Representatives, Republicans hold the majority though lower than that of two years ago. Seen from this view, it is an advantage but in the US representatives and Senators are not too loyal to their parties; they are independent voices in many issues and it is almost impossible with such a tight margin to get the majority approval for major changes.