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The provincial electoral process of the present year ends November 23.
So far the local ruling party has won in 20 of the 23 elections and considering the major districts (Buenos Aires, Capital, Córdoba and Santa Fe), the governor in office won in 90% of the cases.
Although a year ago the worst of the crisis was already over, two in three Argentines still supported the phrase 'begone with them all’. A year later, the result seems quite the opposite.
There are two reasons. For one, the rise in the number of patronage practices –2.5 million people live on public subsidies- which make people vote for whom runs and provides this system. For another, the dismantling and division of the opposition, which also favors the ruling coalition.
In the case of Entre Ríos, the analysis of the five elections for governor held so far shows that the UCR won twice (in 1983 and 1999) and the PJ won thrice (1987, 1991 and 1995). This province along with Buenos Aires are the ones that coincide the most with the national electoral average of the past decades.
| Party | Votes 1983 |
% | Votes 1987 |
% | Votes 1991 |
% | Votes 1995 |
% | Votes 1999 |
% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCR | 248.999 | 49,39 | 236.806 | 43,90 | 248.302 | 44,45 | 263.511 | 45,34 | ---- | ---- |
| PJ | 204.805 | 40,84 | 264.534 | 49,04 | 279.440 | 50,02 | 276.001 | 47,49 | 296.544 | 47,4 |
| AL. DE CENTRO (1) | ---- | ---- | 16.620 | 3,08 | 18.920 | 3,58 | 1.885 | 0,32 | ---- | ---- |
| PI | 7.603 | 1,51 | 6.459 | 1,29 | 2.797 | 0,50 | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- |
| FREPASO | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | 18.920 | 3,58 | 29.698 | 5,11 | ---- | ---- |
| ALIANZA | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | 306.742 | 49,1 |
| ACC. REPUBLICA | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | 15.764 | 2,5 | (1) From 1991, Unión Provincial. Centro de Estudios Nueva Mayoría. |
But a particular characteristic of this province is the high degree of polarization recorded between the two majority parties. Both coalitions combined in the five gubernatorial elections have never scored below 91% of votes.
On that ocassion, the election for governor in Entre Ríos introduces a new aspect, which is the third candidate trying to break polarization.
The PJ candidate is national senator and former Governor Jorge Busti, who already served as provincial governor. The UCR, for its part, competes with Sergio Varisco, who was mayor of the province’s capital district.
The campaign has been dirty –it’s been the most conflictive provincial election in terms of political violence- including armed incidents.
The third candidate for the governorship is the mayor of Gualeguaychú. Of PJ origin, he decided not to compete in the party’s primaries for it would be unlikely to successfully confront the party 'apparatus’.
Interestingly, last year’s assessment by a group of NGOs of the municipal administration quality showed that Gualeguaychú is the country’s best managed town.
In this way, it seems to go unnoticed that the last provincial election seeks to break with the radical-PJ polarization in the province, a candidate whose office has been regarded as the country’s best mayoralty.
His candidate for vice governor is another PJ mayor, José Francisco Nogueira, mayor of La Paz and the coalition supporting him is called 'Nuevo Espacio’, where former radical Juan Carlos Godoy and provincial ARI also converge.
It is not easy for Martínez Garbino to break polarization but for the first time a third force emerges with possibilities to compete in Entre Ríos’ politics. Beyond the result, it will undoubtedly be the least polarized gubernatorial election conducted in the province in the past decades.
The case of Entre Ríos also allows for the possibility to produce a political renewal not outside of it –from where power may be accessed but it’s hard to rule later on- but from the inside and through an efficiently proved administration.
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