Of the four presidential elections scheduled for the rest of the year, the first will be that of Brazil in October 1. The run-off election –in case no candidate seizes 50% that day- will be in October 29. The last Vox Populi survey reveals Lula clearly takes a lead with 42%, followed by Geraldo Alckmin, the governor of Sao Paulo –who is on leave of absence- with 32% and belongs to the party of former President Cardoso. In principle, the election tends to polarise between the two candidates as has been happening with Lula in the past four presidential elections in Brazil. Only two and a half months to go, the main question is whether the current president will win in the first round or will have to compete in the second. Previous surveys showed him as first-round winner and the mentioned poll foresees him in a run-off election though with a major edge over the second. The programmes of Lula and Alckmin do not show substantial differences and both may be defined as social democrats with different emphasis. The economy is growing and unemployment is falling, favouring Lula, who has confronted corruption allegations against his government causing some erosion. As to the issue of insecurity besetting the city of Sao Paulo for being the district controlled by his rival with the Mayor as the last presidential candidate supported by Cardoso (Serra), the issue does not seem to play a clear role in favour of one or the other.
Two weeks later, Ecuador holds the presidential election in October 15 with an eventual run-off election on November 26. The last survey by Mercanálisis shows a strong dispersion in voting preferences, thus making a run-off election possible. In first place is former Vice President León Roldós with 23%, followed by centre-right candidate Alvaro Noboa with 19% -who withdrew his presidential bid days ago- and next former Economy Minister Rafael Correa with 16%. Chávez’ influence in this electoral process is important and seeks to unify the indigenous candidacies with populist nationalism. The oil issue –the current administration has nationalised companies though to a lesser extent than Venezuela and Bolivia- matches the Ecuadorean situation to that of these countries, and the fact that Ecuador along with Bolivia and Peru are the three main countries of Latin America with over half of the population being aborigines also exerts some influence in this matter. Former President Lucio Gutiérrez, who was toppled by a coup by social demonstrations on the streets –just as he had done with the preceding government- deprived of his political rights, attempts to launch his presidential candidacy.
The presidential election in Nicaragua is scheduled for November 5 with the run-off election on December 20. The survey released by Borges y Asociados shows the sandinist candidate, Daniel Ortega, ranks first with 30.1%, followed by Eduardo Montealegre (Nicaraguan Liberal Alliance) with 24% and by José Rizo (Constitutional Liberal Party) with 21%. Ortega is openly backed by Chávez and his eventual power assumption is deemed with concern by Washington. But although this party has high odds to become the leading minority, it will be harder for it to win in a run-off election, giving rise to a phenomenon like the one against Humala in Peru. Sandinism possible victory in Nicaragua would break a central-American context which is generally aligned with Washington and could cause changes on Managua’s permanence in the CAFTA, the free trade agreement of the Central-American countries and Santo Domingo with the US. In turn, Ortega’s victory offers a major point of support to Chávez in Central America.
Finally, the Venezuelan presidential election is slated for December 3, when Chávez would be re-elected for six years more. In this country –as in Colombia- voting is free. Thus, the recent surveys have shown less than one third of registered voters actually cast their ballots, generating legitimacy problems although not issues of political legality. The last survey by Instituto Venezolano de Análisis de Datos shows Chávez has 55.5% distantly followed by Manuel Rosales (3.8%), Julio Borges (3.4%) and Teodoro Petkoff (2.9%), as 33.3% have unspecified votes. For the opposition –which continues divided- the quandary is whether it will launch a candidacy, thus giving legitimacy to Chávez’ victory or refrains from running, letting him win among an electoral turnout of an estimated one fourth of registered voters. To reinforce his participation, the Venezuelan president has threatened to call a referendum on the same day as the election to obtain successive re-elections allowing him to stay in power until 2031 or 2037. Taking Chávez’ electoral victory for granted, his regional vision leads him to prefer Lula’s triumph in Brazil –with whom he is on good terms despite some disagreements- to that of Alckmin and support similar candidates in Ecuador and Nicaragua. Considering Brazil, Venezuela and Ecuador, 70% of South America conducts presidential elections between October 3 and December 3.
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