Highlights of the Argentine political outlook
 

Jul-02-07 - by Rosendo Fraga

In the four surveys hired by the ruling coalition, two weeks ago the Senator averaged 46% of voting preferences, enough for a first round win. But undoubtedly, in the new political scenario, her candidacy poses greater risks for the ruling coalition to fall with one vote below 40%.

1. The three defeats of government in June (Neuquen, Capital city and Tierra del Fuego) have had a strong impact on the political situation against the ruling coalition.
2. President Nestor Kirchner will try to regain the political initiative defining the presidential slate in the weeks ahead.
3. For his part, Mayor elect Mauricio Macri has started moving skillfully, but with the clear idea that unless the police is under his control on 10 December, it will be very hard for him to govern.
4. The provincial elections held in the next two months present more problems than solutions for Kirchner but the hard political situation in Santa Cruz gathers special priority.

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