Power accumulation will continue as the main goal of President Kirchner during 2006. His personality –which is the hardest thing to change in political leaders- makes the conflict an instrument of power articulation. This was the case throughout the four years in which he controlled the Mayoralty of Río Gallegos (1987-1991), the twelve he governed Santa Cruz (1991-2003) and the two and a half years he exerted the Presidency of the Nation (2003-2005). For this reason, the trend of the president towards the conflict and the aggressiveness with different sectors of national life will be a key axis of his political actions. Seeking to resume at national level the strategy that proved him effective in Santa Cruz, he will try to have this year an addict Congress as he did in late 2005 with a record-time approval of the budget, the tax extension and the economic emergency, having justice under control as intended with the bill to modify the Magistrate’s Council, neutralising criticism in the media, underscored in the criticism of Senator Kirchner in daily La Nación and imparting 'discipline’ to all members of government as highlighted by the attack against the Vice President. The Church and the Armed Forces will continue as target of reiterated criticism due to the past conflicts. The health of the president will probably be a recurring political issue in 2006, without that entailing an impediment for power exercise.
This year the campaign and not the administration will be the priority although the presidential election will be held in 2007. Kirchner will continue exerting a 'plebiscite’ democracy that needs permanently sustaining in high popularity rates. Besides, when in early 2005 the president was criticised for breaking the rules banning campagining throughout 60 consecutive days before the electoral date, he replied he lived in 'permanent campaign’. He will seek re-election as any president who may obtain it and his wife might accompany him in the slate, given the political role she is assuming. It cannot be dismissed that the presidential election of October 2007 may be held earlier to the second quarter of the year just as was done under different circumstances by Alfonsin (1989), Menem (1995) and Duhalde (2003). But this will be solved by the government in the third quarter of the year, when it confirms whether it is convenient to move elections forward or not. If this was the case, the second half of 2006 would be a time of full electoral campaign.
In the opposition’s field, the main issue is whether unity will be obtained or not within the framework of atomisation left by the 2005 election. At the start of 2006, the only figure that appears with the possibility of grouping the opposition in view of the 2007 presidential election is the former Economy Minister, Roberto Lavagna. He could be a candidate accepted by the UCR and the anti-Kirchnerist PJ, which do not have a leader today to head their slates, and in a second round with Kirchner, the candidate could be supported both from centre-right (Macri) as well as from centre-left (Carrió) candidates and even from socialism (Binner). For this reason, it is likely that the government intends to deteriorate Lavagna's image with accussations about alledged irregularities. If this is so, he will reply as was already anticipated by his allegations on 'cartel-like' practices in public works which hastened his resignation. The Lower House is the sector where the opposition may show some unity and could condition the Executive, which is the leading minority in this chamber unlike the Senate, where it has almost two thirds as long as the economic interest continues prevailing in the political attitude of governors. The unification of the opposition to confront the reform of the Magistrate’s Council in the Lower House is a leading step of the opposition aimed at limiting Kirchner’s power.
In the social field, the main problem is inflation combined with the growing wage claims. In view of it, the government will seek to prorate price agreements throughout 2006, which according to circumstances may mute a price and wage agreement between the UIA and the CGT or direct controls if inflation is a problem little before elections. Kirchner’s protagonism in this policy will be central and both his cost and success will now fall directly on the president with an Economy Minister that will continue having 'low profile’. The government will let the unions of the private sector negotiate wages with increases but at the same time will try to moderate them in the public sector, limiting them to only one 'update’ in the second quarter of the year. The picket phenomenon will maintain certain relevance both due to the ruling coalition sector which will have protagonism in supporting the government measures as well as in the 'harsh’ sector which will continue demanding. Employment but not poverty is likely to improve.
In foreign policy, dynamics is slated to get Kirchner closer to Chavez than to Lula. Argentina is the Latin American country with the worst US image, two thirds of the public opinion support the approach to Venezuela and Chavez is the foreign president with best image in the public opinion –not among opinion leaders- in Argentina. Against this framework, the dynamics of domestic policy that leads Kirchner to seek a 'centre-left’ figure makes it hard to correct the 'chilled relations’ with the United States left by the IV Summit of President of the Americas. The financing through the purchase of Argentine bonds on the part of Venezuela and the energy import from this country will be elements to consolidate relations between Caracas and Buenos Aires.
To conclude: Kirchner 2006’s main goal is 'power accumulation’, following the model he successfully used in the province of Santa Cruz; It will be a year of permanent campaign both due to the model of 'plebiscite democracy’ which does not change due to the 2005 electoral victory as well as the possibility of holding the 2007 elections earlier; It is not easy that the opposition gets unified but this starts to take place in the Lower House, as Lavagna is today the only figure who could do it for 2007, reason why he will surely confront a confict with Kirchner; In view of inflation, the policy of pressure and negotiation will continue without dismissing control, seeking to moderate wage hikes in the public sector, not least in the private one and in foreign policy, the internal and external dynamics will continue showing an approach to Chavez as Kirchner keeps his own style and personality.
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